Cincinnati Bengals vs New Orleans Saints Point Spread Picks

Defending AFC Champion Cincinnati has turned things around winning two of three. The defense was outstanding last season on the way to the Super Bowl and is in fine form again allowing 12, 15, and 19 points over the last three games. They come off a 19-17 loss at Baltimore and all three of their defeats have been by field goals on the final play. QB Joe Burrow (9 TDs, 5 INTs) and WRs Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins lead the 12th-best passing attack, while the defense is Top 10 in the NFL on third down, in points allowed, and against the run. Cincinnati is on a 19-10 spread run on the road, plus 17-6 ATS against teams that pass for 235+ yards per game. The New Orleans defense is #24 in points surrendered (25.6 pg) and #16 in yards allowed, while QBs Jameis Winston and Andy Dalton have combined for 6 TDs and 6 interceptions. The Saints come off of a 39-32 win over Seattle to break a three-game skid and are 2-10 ATS after a game where 50+ total points were scored. They're also 15-31 ATS at home after allowing 6.5 or more yards per play. Play Cincinnati.

The New Orleans Saints handed the LA Rams their first loss of the season last week. They will try to move to 8-1 on the season as they travel to Cincinnati to take on the Bengals. The Bengals are without its biggest playmaker as A.J. Green continues to struggle with a foot injury. The Saints offense is really rolling and they just signed Dez Bryant to provide yet another weapon for Drew Brees. Brees may be 39-years-old but he is having an MVP caliber year with a passer rating of 120.6 with 18 TDs and just one INT. The Bengals have a great cover record behind Andy Dalton as a home dog, are but under .500 straight-up. I think that if needed, Brees can score in the 2-minute drill to keep the Saints marching. Play New Orleans on the moneyline.

The New Orleans Saints saw their home winning streak come to an end last week vs. the 49ers. They get a chacne to start a new one right away, hosting the Cincinnati Bengals - a team that started out strong, but has really struggled since their 3-0 start. Those first three games saw Cincinnati outscore their opponents 80-33. But, they have since been out-scored 117-174. The Bengals' defense has allowed 23 points or more in every one of their last six games, and have allowed 107 or more rushing yards in seven straight games. Last week the Saints outgained the Niners by almost 100 yards, but it was the turnovers that did them in as they finished -2 in that category. The Bengals have been a turnover machine as Andy Dalton continues to struggle. They have had two or more turnovers in five of their last six games. The Saints are 65-17-3 ATS at home if they win the turnover battle, and are 4-3-1 ATS at home even when they lose the turnover battle in their last eight. Much is written about the Saints' home domination, but no one writes why. The reason is simple. Since the start of the 2012 season, the Saints are 22-6-1 ATS at home and the turnovers have gone like this: if they win the turnover battle, they are 12-1 ATS. If it is even they are 6-2 ATS. And f they lose it they're 4-3-1 ATS. They have won or have come out even 70% of the time, and they are 18-3 ATS when that occurs. The Saints have averaged 32.5 points per game in their last 51 home games, so the total looks to be in trouble as well. Opponents have averaged 23.5 ppg against the Saints over the last three years and 25 ppg this year, so Cincinnati is going to score some here. Drew Brees owns a 111.6 passer rating over the last five years as a home favorite, a 30-15 ATS record and 32.5 ppg for the Saints. New Orleans is going to be dead set on not losing two in a row and will come out fired up. I expect Drew Brees to have a monster day. Lay the points on New Orleans and take the OVER.

The New Orleans Saints have made their move and have improved to 8-3 on the season winning four straight games. The stuffed suits on TV are now talking about them going to the Super Bowl. They have certainly been playing better football, but against whom? Last week they beat the Cowboys, but failed to cover the spread. The Cowboys racked up over 450 yards of offense in that game and under Sean Payton, the Saints are just 6-15 ATS after giving up 400+ yards. Prior to that game, the Saints played games against the likes of Seattle, Carolina twice, Cleveland and Arizona. This team has played a very weak schedule (bottom five in the league). It's not a suprise that it's been a tough chore for them as the Super Bowl winner. Teams that win the Superbowl the previous year are 32-67 ATS on the road as a favorite the following year with everyone gunning for them. The Saints are 2-3 ATS this year in the defender role on the road. Bengals have lost eight straight and their season is long gone, but they have one more game with a lot of meaning left and that is this one. With the pressure off, they get a shot to take down the Super Bowl champion, so I expect their "A" game for this one. Speaking of "A" games, the Saints have not brought theirs vs. teams with a losing record where they are 1-7 ATS in their last eight. The Bengals make for lousy favorites, but they rule the roost as a home dog where they are 5-2 ATS in their last seven. One more hurrah for the Bengals. I will grab the points and Cincinnati here.