Cincinnati Bengals vs Jacksonville Jaguars Point Spread Picks

Joe Burrow completed 28 of 37 passes for 282 yards and three touchdowns at Pittsburgh last Sunday, and Cincinnati still lost 27-30. Before that, the Bengals beat Tampa Bay 33-27 and won at Houston 20-6, so the offense has scored 27 or more in two of three games, and the defense held Houston to 6. Jacksonville has the league’s lowest-scoring defense at 12.0 points a game, and that's been the case against this side. It was built against Cleveland, Denver and New England, who rank 21st, 22nd and tied for 31st in scoring, and Jacksonville’s one road game was a 13-20 loss at Denver. Cincinnati lists cornerback DJ Turner and three safeties as questionable, which is the risk on its side, and Jacksonville’s turnover margin of plus four, tied for second, is the other. Cincinnati scores 26.7 points a game (12th), and Jacksonville’s 27.3 (10th) is close enough that the schedules behind the defensive numbers decide this one. Cincinnati is the right side on the spread, and I don’t expect this one to need the number.

Jacksonville was impressive under new coach Liam Coen in the opener, topping Carolina, 26-10. The offense has some very talented pieces in QB Trevor Lawrence, WR Brian Thomas Jr., TE Brenton Strange, and elite prospect rookie Travis Hunter. They rolled up 378 yards on Carolina, including 200 rushing. Jacksonville is on an 8-3-1 ATS run. Cincinnati comes off a win at Cleveland, 17-16, helped by Cleveland kicker Andre Szmyt missing two second-half kicks. The Bengals won despite getting outgained 327-141. Play Jacksonville. 

Cincinnati is 2-1 and comes off a win over the Steelers, who don't look anything like their teams of the past on either side of the ball. The Bengals, though, aren't ready to lay this many points, even against Jacksonville, who blew a 19-10 lead to Arizona while still featuring a returned missed field goal for 109 yards by Jamal Agnew. Trevor Lawrence went 22 of 34 for 219 yards, and the Jaguars rushed for 159 yards against the Cardinals. The Bengals needed overtime to defeat Minnesota in Week 1 and then beat Chicago, which has almost a non-existent offense. If Urban Meyer can simplify the offense and run the ball more, it would take some of the pressure off his prized No. 1 draft pick. Cincinnati barely covered by a point, 33-25, in last year's meeting, and Jacksonville has more talent this year. Also, the Bengals are 2-5 ATS their last seven games as favorites and 1-5 ATS overall following a win. Look for Jacksonville to keep this one within the number. Play the Jaguars.