Cincinnati Bengals vs Green Bay Packers

After playing the great defenses of the Ravens and Texans, Cincinnati gets to face the rebuilding Green Bay secondary. Cincinnati has a new offensive coordinator this week and is 20-8 OVER the total after scoring fewer than 15 points in their previous game. There is talent on this offense and they get to face a Green Bay secondary that was second worst against the pass last season. NFL road teams off an upset loss as a home favorite in the first half of the season are 79-40 OVER the total that next game. The Packers added some secondary help through the draft, or so they thought, but come off a defensive disaster at Atlanta, allowing 34 points, 223 yards passing and 141 yards rushing. Green Bay is on an 8-1 run OVER the total, as well as 12-4 OVER in September. At least the Packers have a dynamite offense behind QB Aaron Rodgers, with three outstanding wide receivers and new TE Martellus Bennett. Green Bay is also 59-37 OVER the total off a road loss. Back the OVER in this one.

Aaron Rogers has had a pair of huge games to start off the 2013 season. You can bet that a solid Cincinnati defense that has allowed not one of their last nine opponents to top the 20-point mark last year is going to take this as a personal challenge. The problem for the Bengals is their offense hasn't always responded in kind. Their 13-point playoffs performance last season had them one and done. This season they have been stuck right at the 20-point mark offensively in both games. The Bengals are likely to turn to Benjarvus Green-Ellis to carry a lot, as they try to keep Rogers off the field and their defense fresh. The Cincinnati defense has fed off a good game their next time out, as the Bengals have now gone 36-15 to the UNDER when following a contest where they allowed less than 15 points in their last game. They are a perfect 7-0 UNDER the past two seasons after a game in which they allowed 14 or fewer points. They are also 9-1 to the UNDER when following a straight-up win. Cincinnati is 47-35 UNDER in the Marvin Lewis era at home. Play the UNDER.

Yes, Cincinnati is bad. They somehow found a way to lose last week against Denver, despite owning a lead with under a minute to go. No one wants to touch this team after that debacle. And, the Packers, despite a rusty opener vs. Chicago, are still a public favorite. As a result, 73% of the public are backing Green Bay here, despite a lot of wood (9.5 points). While there's no arguing which is the better team here, this is the perfect set up for Cincinnati cover. When one side seems so obvious and your inner voice is telling you that you could never back the other side, that's the time to do it. I can just hear Joe Square right now: "Cincinnati is horrible. They couldn't even beat lowly Denver at home. Green Bay is a good team and Aaron Rodgers is going to feast here." Well, if it were that easy folks, big favorites in the NFL would win and cover every week. Ask the Patriots and the Chargers how that worked out for them last week. The fact is, Green Bay looked rusty last week. They still got us the win and cover, but they didn't dominate as expected. Green Bay actually had just 226 yards of offense and 26:57 time of possession. Without a +4 turnover advantage, the Packers lose that game and this line is set closer to 7 points. The Bengals actually dominated the Broncos, owning a seven minute time of possession advantage. Carson Palmer hit 64% of his passes. The defense essentially held the Broncos to 6 points before that late fluke play. I like the Bengals to find a way to keep this one under the very large number.