Cincinnati Bengals vs Detroit Lions Point Spread Picks

Cincinnati has a winning record losing only to the Bears and Packers by three points each time. The defense is #8 in points allowed, #10 against the run, #11 in total yards, while QB Joe Burrow (11 TDs, 6 INTs) has been very good. The Bengals are 10-3 ATS after a defeat, plus 7-3 ATS as a road favorite. The Lions are one of only two winless teams in the NFL for new coach Dan Campbell. Detroit's defense is #24 in points surrendered, #22 against the run, #21 in yards allowed, while the rebuilding offense is #21 in total yards, #24 in points, #30 on third down. The Lions are 20-38 ATS at home after covering the spread in two of the last three games, so back the up-and-coming visitors. Play Cincinnati. 

The Bengals appear to have given up. After a poor showing in their opener vs. Baltimore, the Bengals competed in their next 11 games, outscoring their opponents. But now they have dropped two straight by almost identical scores of 7-33 and 7-34. As a result, they are now 5-point dogs at home to a mediocre team. I believe this line is off. Detroit allows 25 points per game on the road and their defense cannot stop anyone, allowing 362 yards per game. Meanwhile Cincinnati allows just 20.6 per game at home. The Bengals struggle offensively, but these are precisely the teams that the Lions struggle against. Detroit is just 30-52-4 ATS (36.6%) in their last 86 games vs. teams like Cincy that average 17 or fewer points per game. The Lions are also 37-53-2 ATS in their last 92 games as chalk in this range (-3.5 to -10.5). As a road favorite of any size, Detroit is just 14-25-1 ATS. Is Detroit the better team? Yes, but they are on the road in a bad spot, laying too many points. Take the Bengals here.

Cincinnati continues to have great depth and talent across the board. They may fall apart come playoff time, but they are great in the regular and preseason. Last August the Bengals went 3-1 SU/ATS, allowing 13 points per game. The defense played well again last week, allowing 17 points to Minnesota, as the run-oriented Vikings ran 24 times for just 56 yards. Cincy has a fine QB rotation with Andy Dalton and A.J. McCarron, and the strong defensive line faces a terrible Detroit offensive line. The Lions took advantage of a young Pittsburgh defense last week that was sorting through the number four and five on the depth charts. Now they face a much more talented and deeper defense. The Lions have a lot of injuries all around, including three linebackers. In addition, Michael Ola (ankle) and Don Carey (knee) suffered injuries during Monday's practice. Despite putting up 30 points at Pittsburgh last week, the rebuilt offensive line struggled both mentally and physically (95 yards rushing, 27 carries). Detroit coach Jim Caldwell has a losing exhibition spread record. The talented Bengals are on a 5-2 SU/ATS preseason run allowing 14.5 points and match up well. Take the points on Cincinnati.