Cincinnati Bengals vs Dallas Cowboys Point Spread Picks

A pair of struggling defensive teams meet up. The big difference, though, is offensive production. Cincinnati has lost three in a row despite averaging 33 points. There's nothing with this offense, ranked ninth in total yards and No. 1 in passing behind QB Joe Burrow (30 TDs, 5 INTs), WRs Ja'Marr Chase (1,142 yards), and Tee Higgins. In the last three games, Burrow has thrown 428, 356, and 309 yards. The Bengals are 5-1 ATS on the road. Dallas is on a 2-5 SU/ATS run and is 1-5 SU/ATS at home. The offense is down to backup QB Cooper Rush, the second-worst in rushing with 85.8 yards per game and just 3.7 yards per carry. The defense is 23rd in yards allowed, 28th in points given up (28.3 per game), and last in the red zone (76.92%). Cornerback Trevon Diggs (knee injury) hasn’t played the previous two weeks and is questionable. Play Cincinnati. 

Dallas opened on the road last week and kept it simple in a loss at the 49ers. The little they did show was pretty good, though, leading 14-7 at the half as QB Dak Prescott was sharp. He completed all three of pass attempts and converted a third-and-9 with a 12-yard scramble. The defense allowed 3.8 yards per rush and held San Francisco to 4-of-10 on third down. Now they play their home opener and face a rebuilding Cincinnati squad. The Bengals have plenty to prove after a disappointing 2017 season and they pleased the home fans last week in a win over Chicago. But there is less to prove this week as they play their first road game. After veteran QB Andy Dalton, the rotation drops off sharply with QBs Jeff Driskel and Matt Barkley. Last year, the Bengals opened preseason at home and rolled over Tampa Bay (23-12), then got mauled by the Chiefs in Week 2, 30-12, showing nothing. Their last seven preseason road games they've scored 17, 6, 21, 30, 11, 9 and 13 points for an average of 15.2 points per game. The wagering value is on the home team to win a defensive duel. Play Dallas on the moneyline and also take the UNDER.

Cincinnati had three extra days to prepare for this matchup after its 22-7 win over Miami last Thursday night. Linebacker Vontaze Burfict returned after serving a suspension and was active against Miami. Andy Dalton was 22-of-31 for 296 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions and was sacked only once. A.J. Green had 10 catches for 173 yards and a touchdown. The Bengals defense sacked Ryan Tannehill five times against a depleted Miami offensive line. Dallas came back from a 14-0 deficit to beat San Francisco 24-17 as rookie Dak Prescott continued to impress in completing 23-of-32 for 245 yards and no picks. The Cowboys outyarded the 49ers 428-295 and another rookie, Ezekiel Elliott, rushed for 138 yards on 23 carries. The Cowboys are second in the NFL in total yards per game and the Bengals are #11. Cincy has the edge on defense as it is ranked ninth in total yards allowed and the Cowboys are #18. The Bengals have covered the spread seven games in a row on the road against NFC East teams and nine of their last 10 road games overall. Also, Cincinnati is 14-5-2 ATS its last 21 games overall. Dallas is 5-13-1 ATS at home since 2014 and the Cowboys have covered just two of their last eight after an ATS win. The Bengals are 8-1 OVER when they are favorites of four or fewer points. Dalton and his offensive line are coming off their best game of the year, so play the Bengals and the OVER.