Chicago Bears vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Point Spread Picks

Chicago QB Justin Fields admitted he played too conservatively in his team's 38-20 loss to Green Bay and plans to take more shots down the field against a decent Tampa Bay defense. The Buccaneers capitalized on two lost fumbles and beat Minnesota 20-17, but they still allowed 344 passing yards by Kirk Cousins and the Buccs were outgained 369-242. Baker Mayfield went 21-for-34 on pass attempts for 173 yards and two touchdowns after recovering from a rough start. The Bears still remember the 38-3 beating they took at Tampa Bay in 2021 and the Buccaneers are 2-10-1 ATS after totaling fewer than 90 yards rushing their previous game. Also, Tampa Bay is 3-13-1 ATS overall, 3-8-1 ATS against NFC teams and 2-9-1 ATS overall as a favorite dating to last season. Chicago has gone UNDER six straight in Week 2 and the Buccaneers have stayed UNDER 13 of their past 19 games overall and 19 of 26 versus the NFC. The Buccaneers have gone UNDER their past four September games. Take the Bears as a Max Play and the UNDER as a Max Play.

Chicago is going to have to hang in there with defense because the offense is putrid. The Bears 'D' is last in the NFL in total yards, #28 on third down, and last in passing with a ridiculous 117.2 yards passing per game. Rookie QB Justin Fields (2 TDs, 3 INTs, 18 sacks) will make his fifth start here, and the Bears are 6-13 ATS following a loss and 12-25 ATS off a home loss by 10+ points. Defending champion Tampa Bay is home after playing three of four on the road. QB Tom Brady (17 TDs, 3 INTs) leads the third-ranked offense in total yards, they're No. 1 in passing, and third in points (32.5 per game). Chicago likes to run the football, but this is a terrible matchup as Tampa Bay is No. 1 against the rush for the third straight season. The Buccaneers are 9-1 ATS versus teams that allow 5.65 yards per play, and the Bears are 6-18 ATS on the road against offenses that average 27+ points. Play Tampa Bay.

Tom Brady showed that he's a long way from retirement after rallying Tampa Bay from a 17-point deficit and defeating the Los Angeles Chargers, 38-31, on Sunday. Brady threw for 369 yards and five touchdowns while the Buccaneers outgained the Chargers, 484-324, and held them to 46 yards on the ground. It was the third straight win for Tampa Bay after an opening loss to New Orleans while Chicago suffered its first loss following three close wins over Detroit, New York Giants, and Atlanta, three teams with a combined record of 1-11. Nick Foles started for the Bears, but it didn't make much difference as they managed only 269 total yards of offense, including 28 rushing yards. Foles went 26 of 42 with an interception and will face Brady for the first time since Super Bowl 52 when Foles was MVP and led the Eagles to a win. Brady is 5-0 in his career against Chicago while throwing for 1,595 yards and 14 touchdowns. Tampa Bay has covered the number four of its last five road games dating to last season. The Bears are 4-11-1 ATS their last 16 Thursday games and 1-8 ATS their last nine games after a loss. Also, Chicago is 4-12 ATS its last 16 games overall, and Tampa Bay's offense has a big edge over the Bears, who are #24 in the league in yards gained and #25 in points scored. Take the Buccaneers.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have ridden on Ryan “Fitzmagic” for a 2-1 start against three good teams - without Jameis Winston. Winston returns for Week 4, and the starter is uncertain at this point, but the Bucs have been more than just Fitzpatrick, although he sure has helped. Chicago has the worst yards per play offense in the NFL, generating 4.7 yards per play vs. a schedule of teams allowing 5.9. That is -1.2 yards per play. If not for the impact of Kalil Mack on defense, the Bears would be brutally bad instead of just bad. The Bears forced four turnovers vs. an Arizona team that had scored six points total in two games, and still almost managed to lose. Tampa Bay found themselves in the second half vs. Pittsburgh on the road defensively, as they shutout a potent Steelers offense, and the come back missed by just three points. I think this one is a lot easier and getting points just adds to the value. Play the points.

Rebuilding Chicago didn't get the win last week, but they came real close to beating the defending NFC champs in a 23-17 squeaker as a +7 dog. The defense is improved and held the Falcons to 64 yards rushing for just 2.8 yards per carry. Chicago is 11-1 ATS off a home cover where the team lost as an underdog. On offense, the Bears have an excellent running back and offensive line, getting 125 yards in Week 1, for 6.6 yards per carry. Tampa Bay has yet to play with their opener against Miami cancelled last week. RB Doug Martin won't play, suspended for the first four games. The Buccaneers are a big favorite, but are on a miserable 21-45-1 spread run at home. Chicago had a losing road mark last season and the Bucs are 11-24 ATS at home against teams with losing road records. Take daaa Bears.