Chicago Bears vs St. Louis Rams Point Spread Picks

The Chicago Bears are a big dog against a conservative St. Louis Rams team. The Bears have QB Jay Cutler fresh off a Monday night game where his talented right arm delivered, throwing for 345 yards and a late TD for the win as a dog. The Bears are on a 4-1 ATS run, plus 4-1 ATS on the road. Chicago is also 23-7 OVER the total when following a win. This game is indoors, which will help their talented passing game, which is clicking since WR Ashlon Jeffrey returned, and TE Zack Miller, who caught the one-handed late TD Monday night. Chicago finished with a season-best 446 total yards Monday. WR Jeffery caught 10 passes for 151 yards, his third straight 100-yard game. St. Louis is coming off a demoralizing 21-18 overtime loss to the Minnesota Vikings. It was a critical road loss with possible playoff implications, and the Rams are 15-35-1 ATS after allowing fewer than 150 yards passing in their previous game. The Rams played Sunday's game in Minnesota without four starters -- defensive ends Chris Long (knee) and Robert Quinn (knee), safety T.J. McDonald (foot) and tackle Rob Havenstein (ankle). St. Louis is also 10-4 OVER the total in November. When these teams met two years ago it was a 42-21 shootout, way OVER the total, and the Bears are 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings. Play Chicago and the OVER.

The Rams are 4-6, but that might be misleading. They have had some odd games where everything worked in their favor, got all the breaks and cashed in lopsided affairs. The first occurred against Houston where as a +9.5 road underdog they won 38-13. The second was last week when they crushed the Indianapolis Colts 38-8 as a +7.5 point underdog. The problem is when there is normalcy in their games, they simply aren't good enough to win. That rings particularly true now that they have a back-up QB, as they are 2-6 in the rest of their games, including a win against Jacksonville. Chicago is 6-4, and without something abnormal happening in this game, Chicago is going to win. The Bears' backup QB has a passer rating of 100, with 5 TDs and 0 INTs. There's talk already that paying Jay Cutler the big bucks may not be worth it as McCown has been every bit his equal so far. The Bears have taken five of the last six meetings ATS, including 4-1 here. Since last season, the Bears are 8-1 straight-up vs. losing team With Cutler in the game, this line would be a lot bigger, so we get value playing the Bears with McCown here. Take Chicago.

It would be very difficult to expect the Bears to come back and play tough in this one. They gave everything they had last week vs. the Vikings, and it was good enough for a 7-7 tie midway through the second quarter. The Vikings took off from that point, essentially ending the Bears' season. At 4-7, Chicago will not be making the playoffs and if there was ever a deflating loss leading to a mail-it-in type of game, this is the spot vs. the lowly Rams. It has been over a month since the Bears even won a game and now they are a huge favorite? That says more about what the oddsmakers think of the Rams than the Bears. If you haven't noticed, the Bears are 1-6 in their last seven games with three losses by 20 points or more. In their last four games they have a worse record than the Rams. The fact is, St. Louis has improved (didn't lose a game by more than 10 points the last month), while Chicago has gotten worse (0-4 with 14 ppg scored over last month). I like St. Louis with the generous points here. I also like the UNDER. Both offenses have been anemic this year. St. Louis is averaging 11.8 points per game. Chicago has averaged 14.3 per game over the last month. Take out a 30-point performance vs. Cleveland and a 48-point performance vs. Detroit, and the Bears are averaging just 15.3 points per game on the year! The Rams have played to the UNDER at a 13-5 mark in their last 18 on grass. The Bears are 5-0 to the UNDER after allowing 150 rushing yards or more and 20-2 UNDER after scoring 14 or fewer points under Lovie Smith. The one bright spot for the Rams is RB Stephen Jackson, so the Rams will have the ball on the ground a lot here grinding the clock. The last seven meetings between these two have produced five UNDERs. This spread is inflated and the Bears deflated. With Jackson grinding out yards on the ground, I like the Rams and the UNDER in this one.