Chicago Bears vs San Francisco 49ers Point Spread Picks

Malign the Bears at your own peril. All Chicago has done is go 11-4, which is the second-best record in the NFC, and tie with Jacksonville for the second-best ATS mark at 10-4-1. Chicago has won seven of its last eight games, with three of their past four victories coming against teams currently in the playoffs — the Steelers, Eagles, and Packers. First-year Bears head coach Ben Johnson is doing a great job bringing along potential franchise QB Caleb Williams. The Bears are the No. 2 rushing team in the NFL. That has taken some of the pressure off Williams, too. San Francisco's defense is down because of injuries to its two best defenders, linebacker Fred Warner and defensive end Nick Bosa. The 49ers just allowed 44-year-old Philip Rivers and the Colts to score 27 points and gain 312 yards this past Monday night. San Francisco's offense has been clicking. The Bears, however, are the most opportunistic team in the NFL with a league-best 31 takeaways and a plus-21 ratio. Chicago also has a rest advantage, having last played on Saturday, while the 49ers are on a short week following their Monday victory. Take the Bears.

Chicago has talent on offense and has gotten decent play out of rookie QB Caleb Williams (14 TDs, 5 INTs). But the defense has let them down, ranked 22nd in yards allowed and 25th against the run. They've lost six in a row, allowing an average of 23.1 points. San Francisco's defense is 24th in points surrendered (24.6 per game), 26th on third down (44.16%), and 31st in the red zone (70.73%). They haven't even shown up in the last two games, allowing 38 and 35 points. Take Chicago/San Francisco OVER the total. 

The Chicago Bears are not high on many lists regarding 2022 expectations. The Bears did not show much in terms of a home-field advantage last season finishing their home schedule at just 3-5. That gives a look to this game as a San Francisco easy win, but despite the 3-5 overall home record a year ago the Bears were out-scored at home by just 0.5ppg. That tells me this game will be a lot more competitive than it looks, and laying a TD on the road in week 1 is not a desirable position to be backing. Week 1 home dogs of 7 or more have covered 58.3% of all games. San Francisco went the last 6 games a year ago without scoring more than 27 points in any of them. The defense had to step up and win games. This was a team that went 8-4 on the road last year however 6 of those wins were by 1 score, and 5 were by 6 or fewer points. The Bears are getting no love but the line here is inflated for a week one road favorite. Make the play on Chicago.

This is about as low of an NFL total as you'll find without a blizzard roaring through. It's forecasted to be 55 degrees and sunny in Chicago on Sunday. San Francisco has lost four in a row with defensive problems. They're surrendering an average of 26.25 points during the skid. The 49ers have dropped to #20 in the NFL in points allowed and are 21-11 OVER the total as a favorite. Chicago's defense has also had problems giving up 24 and 38 points the last two games. They had four players on the COVID list for last week's game, including LB Caleb Johnson and star linebacker Robert Quinn. The Bears are #14 in points surrendered and #18 on third down. Also, the 49ers are 36-20 OVER the total against offenses that average 285 or fewer total yards per contest. Play this one to go OVER the total.

The Chicago Bears just clinched the NFC North with a home win over the rival Packers, 24-17. There was plenty of celebrating as they haven't been to the playoffs since 2010. After clinching the title, now they fly to the West Coast. Chicago has injuries in the secondary, losing key slot corner Bryce Callahan (broken foot) and they are without Eddie Jackson (ankle injury). Chicago is a .500 team on the road, losing as a three-point favorite at the Giants, 30-27, squeezing by at Arizona (16-14) as -5.5 chalk, and losing at Miami as a TD-favorite, 31-28. NFL road teams that have covered five of six of the last seven games and have won 60% to 75% of their games are 45-82 ATS when facing a team with a losing record. San Francisco has a winning home record and is playing well, beating the Broncos (20-14) and Seahawks (26-23) the last two games. They were an underdog each time and this is their third straight home game. QB Nick Mullens (1,754 yards, 10 TDs, 6 picks) has been sharp along with star TE George Kittle (1,154 yards). Chicago is 23-42 ATS against teams averaging six yards per play or more, making this is a great situational spot for the home dog. Take San Francisco.