Chicago Bears vs Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles have had some high-scoring offensive games this season. It has tended to skew totals up as despite averaging 30ppg they have only actually reached 30 points 5 times this season. Justin Fields has become a huge threat running the ball. The NFL is quick to react, however. The Bear's offense with Fields running a lot averaged 31ppg over a 4-game stretch, but teams have adjusted and the Bear's last 3 games show just 17.7ppg. The Bears will continue to run and keep the clock moving vs the Eagles, but points will continue to be difficult to come by. The Eagles have averaged over 40ppg in their last 3 helping to inflate this total. From week 9 on a team that has averaged 40+ points over a 3-game stretch play under the total 59.3% of ll games. I like the under in this one.

This is a rematch of last season's Wild Card game when Chicago kicker Cody Parker hit the left upright and then the crossbar from 43 yards and the Eagles escaped with a victory. Now the Bears have to bounce back from a similar fate after their new kicker, Eddy Pineiro, missed a 41-yard field goal as time expired and they lost 17-16 to the Chargers on Sunday. The Bears outgained the Chargers 388-231 and got 135 yards rushing from David Montgomery and Mitchell Trubisky finished 23-of-35 for 253 yards. Philadelphia went OVER by 4.5 points in its 31-13 victory against Buffalo, which had played a relatively easy schedule while going 5-1. The Eagles piled up 218 yards rushing on a wet and windy day. Philly's defense allows 346.6 yards (#14 in the league) and 24.9 points. Chicago is 13-5 ATS its last 18 games versus NFC teams while the Eagles have covered just once in six games against the NFC. Also, the Eagles are just 3-7 ATS their last 10 home games and 4-9 ATS their last 13 November games. Philadelphia has gone OVER five of its last seven after giving up fewer than 15 points its previous game. This is a low posted total so play the Bears and the OVER.

Chicago has won seven of its eight home games while the Eagles are 4-4 on the road following their 24-0 win at Washington on Sunday. The Bears have won four in a row and did not let up even after clinching the NFC North as they went on to win two road games at San Francisco and Minnesota. The Bears have allowed a total of only 45 points their last four games and they are third in the NFL in yards allowed. They also lead the league in points allowed (17.7 per game) and they have the top-ranked rush defense. Jordan Howard was the star of Sunday's win over the Vikings as he ran for 109 yards and two touchdowns and Mitchell Trubisky went 18-for-26 for 163 yards and no interceptions. The Vikings were held to 164 total yards and Kirk Cousins was sacked four times. Chicago has been relentless in winning its last four games and not having many players sit out waiting for the playoffs. That is a good sign heading into the postseason and they'll face a quarterback in Nick Foles, who is not 100 percent healthy due to bruised ribs and is listed as probable for this game. Philadelphia won five of its last six games to eke into the playoffs, but four of those wins came against teams with losing records and the win over Houston was on a last-second field goal. Chicago's last four games have all gone UNDER and Philly has stayed UNDER four of its last five Wild Card games. The UNDER is 5-2-1 in the Eagles' last eight January games. Play the Bears on the moneyline and also take the UNDER.

Philadelphia is in a huge letdown situation after its big win over Dallas on Sunday night and the Eagles are favored by nearly two touchdowns in this matchup. Chicago's last four losses have been by an average of 5.3 points, including a 27-24 loss to Detroit last week, which ended with a missed last-minute field goal. Jordan Howard rushed for 125 yards and a touchdown for the Bears and rookie quarterback Mitch Trubisky was 18-of-30 for 179 yards and a touchdown with no interceptions. Chicago is 7-2-1 ATS its last 10 games against teams with winning records and 6-2-1 ATS its last nine November games. The Bears have strong offensive and defensive lines that can keep games close. Also, Trubisky is gaining confidence and offensive coordinator Dowell Loggains has started to open up the offense with a little more variety. The Eagles are 24-7 OVER the last 31 games against teams with losing records and they have gone OVER four of their last five after allowing fewer than 15 points their previous game. Philly is averaging 32.0 points per game, but the Bears now have enough offense to keep it close. Take the Bears and the OVER. 

Eagles Rookie Carson Wentz had an impressive debut last week, completing 22 of 37 passes for 278 yards and no interceptions. Meanhwile, Jay Cutler was 16 of 29 for 216 yards and an interception as the Bears lost at Houston. Chicago managed only 73 yards on the ground and 258 yards of total offense, while allowing 346 yards. The Eagles defense held the Browns to a total of just 288 yards while gaining 403 total yards of offense of their own. The Philly defense can pressure Cutler, whose main target will be Alshon Jeffrey (four catches for 105 yards last week). The Eagles have injuries in their defensive backfield, but if they can keep Cutler on the run it will neutralize that problem. Philly wideout Jordan Matthews had seven receptions for 114 yards last week, and Ryan Mathews rushed for 77 yards on 22 carries so the Bears can't sell out here either way. Historically, rookie quarterbacks in their first road game have been a go-against, but in recent years that hasn't been the case. Dak Prescott was a good example yesterday in Dallas' win over the Redskins. Chicago has lost five of its last six games dating to last season and were 1-7 straight up at Soldier Field last season. Cutler and his offensive line remains a huge question mark as he was sacked five times last week. Play the Eagles on the moneyline.