Chicago Bears vs Philadelphia Eagles Point Spread Picks

Case Keenum hasn't taken a regular-season snap since 2023, and he walks into Monday night's spotlight with Tyson Bagent unavailable and Caleb Williams already sidelined by a Grade 2 hamstring strain that could keep him out a month. Chicago scored 59 in the opener with Williams running the show, then managed exactly three points against Minnesota's blitz-heavy defense before he ever left the field hurt. Now the Bears hand the offense to a third-stringer making his first start in three years, behind a group that already looked overwhelmed once real pressure showed up. Philadelphia isn't walking in clean either. Saquon Barkley is banged up with a neck and shoulder issue, Dallas Goedert didn't finish last week's win in Nashville, and Jalen Hurts was picked off twice in that same comeback. Philadelphia's offense had the ball for more than 75% of the first half against Tennessee and still only led 14-10 at the break. Two limited offenses meeting under the lights is exactly the setup I want beneath a number that hasn't fully caught up to a Bears quarterback change made days into game week. Dennis Allen's defense already led the league in takeaway rate a year ago, and now it gets to tee off on a passer who hasn't played meaningful snaps since before this Bears core existed. Sacks, negative plays, and three-and-outs are what both numbers have in common, in the first half and the full game alike, and that's the kind of spot our ledger is built for. Take the first-half UNDER and the full-game UNDER tonight.

The Eagles have had some high-scoring offensive games this season. It has tended to skew totals up as despite averaging 30ppg they have only actually reached 30 points 5 times this season. Justin Fields has become a huge threat running the ball. The NFL is quick to react, however. The Bear's offense with Fields running a lot averaged 31ppg over a 4-game stretch, but teams have adjusted and the Bear's last 3 games show just 17.7ppg. The Bears will continue to run and keep the clock moving vs the Eagles, but points will continue to be difficult to come by. The Eagles have averaged over 40ppg in their last 3 helping to inflate this total. From week 9 on a team that has averaged 40+ points over a 3-game stretch play under the total 59.3% of ll games. I like the under in this one.

This is a rematch of last season's Wild Card game when Chicago kicker Cody Parker hit the left upright and then the crossbar from 43 yards and the Eagles escaped with a victory. Now the Bears have to bounce back from a similar fate after their new kicker, Eddy Pineiro, missed a 41-yard field goal as time expired and they lost 17-16 to the Chargers on Sunday. The Bears outgained the Chargers 388-231 and got 135 yards rushing from David Montgomery and Mitchell Trubisky finished 23-of-35 for 253 yards. Philadelphia went OVER by 4.5 points in its 31-13 victory against Buffalo, which had played a relatively easy schedule while going 5-1. The Eagles piled up 218 yards rushing on a wet and windy day. Philly's defense allows 346.6 yards (#14 in the league) and 24.9 points. Chicago is 13-5 ATS its last 18 games versus NFC teams while the Eagles have covered just once in six games against the NFC. Also, the Eagles are just 3-7 ATS their last 10 home games and 4-9 ATS their last 13 November games. Philadelphia has gone OVER five of its last seven after giving up fewer than 15 points its previous game. This is a low posted total so play the Bears and the OVER.

Chicago has won seven of its eight home games while the Eagles are 4-4 on the road following their 24-0 win at Washington on Sunday. The Bears have won four in a row and did not let up even after clinching the NFC North as they went on to win two road games at San Francisco and Minnesota. The Bears have allowed a total of only 45 points their last four games and they are third in the NFL in yards allowed. They also lead the league in points allowed (17.7 per game) and they have the top-ranked rush defense. Jordan Howard was the star of Sunday's win over the Vikings as he ran for 109 yards and two touchdowns and Mitchell Trubisky went 18-for-26 for 163 yards and no interceptions. The Vikings were held to 164 total yards and Kirk Cousins was sacked four times. Chicago has been relentless in winning its last four games and not having many players sit out waiting for the playoffs. That is a good sign heading into the postseason and they'll face a quarterback in Nick Foles, who is not 100 percent healthy due to bruised ribs and is listed as probable for this game. Philadelphia won five of its last six games to eke into the playoffs, but four of those wins came against teams with losing records and the win over Houston was on a last-second field goal. Chicago's last four games have all gone UNDER and Philly has stayed UNDER four of its last five Wild Card games. The UNDER is 5-2-1 in the Eagles' last eight January games. Play the Bears on the moneyline and also take the UNDER.