Chicago Bears vs Minnesota Vikings Point Spread Picks

The Chicago Bears will travel to Minnesota to take on the Vikings, who have dug a hole in the NFC North standings at 4-5. The biggest problem is the offense that is generating just 300 total yards per game. JJ McCarthy has actually been worse than Carson Wentz. Wentz has thrown for 7.2 yards per attempt, while McCarthy is at 6.4. They have combined to throw 11 INTs on the season. The Bears' defense is below average, but I don't think the Vikings' offense is good enough to capitalize on it. The Vikings defense is allowing just 317 total yards a game, and this game fits an under situation that plays on division home favorites on regular rest with a total posted at greater than 43.5 when their opponents' previous opponent scored fewer than 32 points. This works out to 229-163-4 to the UNDER. Make the play UNDER the total.

Four of the past five meetings have gone UNDER, and Minnesota is 14-2 UNDER in its past 16 Monday games, including the last seven in a row. J.J. McCarthy will be making his first start in a regular-season game for the Vikings, who went UNDER four of their last six road games in 2024. Chicago has gone UNDER six of nine against NFC North opponents, and the Bears are 8-3 UNDER in their past 11 Monday games. Caleb Williams, who has yet to prove he can be an NFL-caliber starting quarterback, will face a stellar Vikings pass rush that is expected to be stronger this year with the additions of tackles Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave. Meanwhile, McCarthy will be playing behind a revamped offensive line, as will Williams, whose progress was slowed with constant pressure on him last season, and that will be a problem again tonight. Chicago is hoping cornerback Jaylon Johnson has recovered enough from a groin injury to help cover Justin Jefferson, who was limited to 27 yards in Minnesota's overtime win at Chicago and 73 yards in the rematch last year. Take the UNDER.

Chicago has lost seven in a row and plays its third straight on the road, off a 38-13 loss at San Francisco. Rookie QB Caleb Williams has been sacked 56 times and faces a Minnesota defense that is eighth in the NFL with 40 sacks. The Bears have lost all six of their road games. The offense is 31st in total yards and on third down (33.89%). Meanwhile, Minnesota's offense is 11th in total yards and on third down, plus ninth in points, behind QB Sam Darnold (28 TDs, 10 INTs). The Vikings have won six in a row, are 6-1 at home, come off a 42-21 rout of Atlanta, and play their third straight consecutive home contest. Division games can be close with the bad teams finding a way to get up for rivals so I don't necessarily trust the Vikings to cover this large number. Play the Minnesota Vikings on the moneyline.