Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers Point Spread Picks

Chicago averages 28 points per game, and 59 of its 112 points came in one game: the 59-37 win at Carolina. Without that one, the Bears average 17.7 points per game over their other three. Caleb Williams is out with a hamstring injury, Tyson Bagent started last week against the Jets, and Kyler Gordon and Anthony Johnson Jr. are out in the secondary, with Joe Thuney questionable on the line. Chicago is 3-1 and 2-0 without Williams, but both wins came at home against Philadelphia and the Jets, who rank 26th and 25th in scoring, respectively. Green Bay is 2-2 and averages 18.3 points (28th in the league), and without Micah Parsons and Josh Jacobs, the offense isn't this side's strength. The Packers do have a per-play edge: they gain 5.2 yards per play and allow 5.0, while Chicago gains 5.8 and allows 5.9. They lost to Minnesota, 4-0, with the league's best scoring defense, and to Atlanta; both wins were by 3 points. I'm on Green Bay with the points Sunday, and I don't expect this one to need them.

This playoff game won't have ideal conditions for offensive football: 23 degrees, snow, and wind in Chicago on Saturday night. Green Bay's offense struggled down the stretch as the weather grew cold. The Packers have lost four in a row, averaging 17.25 points. This will also be their fourth road game in five contests, averaging 15 points in their last three away from home. How could they possibly win here against the upstart home team? Well, take a clue from the spread here. Seems like a trap, and it is. And the Packers can play defense. Green Bay's defense is 12th in yards allowed and 11th in points allowed (21.2 per game). Chicago is third in the league in rushing (144.5 yards per game), looking to control the ball and the clock, which will keep the score down and the Packers in it. Jordan Love is an elite QB, ranking in my top 5 this season, ahead of Josh Allen, Dak Prescott, and Trevor Lawrence. Caleb Williams is solid but middling, and come the playoffs, these things take on increased importance. Chicago's defense is its Achilles heel. The Bears are on a 9-4 run UNDER the total at home (6-2 UNDER this season). Take Green Bay and the UNDER.  

Chicago is 10-4, and one of the main factors has been its improved defense since the beginning of the season. The Bears have allowed only 18.5 points per game in their past six games following their 31-3 rout of the Browns on Sunday. Cleveland was held to 192 total yards, and the game went UNDER even with the low posted total of 38, which is nine points fewer than this week's game against Green Bay. It was the fourth UNDER in six games for the Bears, who are #8 in the NFL, allowing 20.1 points per game this season. Chicago is 5-1-1 UNDER in its past seven games against NFC opponents. The Bears are #2 in rushing yards per game (151.9) and #2 in rushing attempts (31.4), both of which lead to a lot of clock usage. Take the UNDER.

Combine the Lumberjacks (-2250) and the Packers (-300) into a 2-team parlay at -255 odds.