Chicago Bears vs Cleveland Browns Point Spread Picks

This could be the coldest game of the NFL season, with temperatures expected to be below 10 degrees. There will be some wind, too. But this is more than offset by a low total, the Bears' No. 2 rushing attack, and significant improvement from Shedeur Sanders, who is coming off a 364-yard, three-touchdown performance versus Tennessee. Cleveland has scored 20 or more points just four times this season, but twice in the past three games since Sanders became its starting quarterback. The Browns' defense may be starting to wear down after surrendering 31 points to the Titans last week. That was a season-high in points for the Titans. Tennessee entered that matchup averaging only 14.1 points on the season. The Browns were gashed for 180 yards and two touchdowns on the ground by the Titans, who averaged 5.5 yards per carry on 33 running attempts. Only the Bills average more rushing yards than the Bears. Chicago's offensive line and overall offense are far better than Tennessee's. Take the OVER.

Chicago has won three of four and is close to having a respectable season after a terrible start and the Bears come off arguably their best performance of the year in a 28-13 win over Detroit. Justin Fields threw for 223 yards and a touchdown and ran for 58 yards and a score and wide receiver D.J. Moore had 88 yards of offense and two TDs for the Bears, who have covered four straight as underdogs and they are 4-0-1 ATS their past five games overall. Cleveland snapped a two-game skid with a 31-27 win over Jacksonville and the game sailed OVER by 20.5 points. The Browns have gone OVER three in a row and six of eight and a hobbled Trevor Lawrence threw for 257 yards and three TDs although with three picks against the Cleveland defense on Sunday. The Browns are 5-11 ATS as home favorites of 3.5 to 10.0 points, 5-14 ATS their past 19 games following a win and 3-7 ATS overall against teams with losing records. Chicago is 9-4 OVER its past 13 road games and the Browns have allowed an average of 30.7 points their past three games. Take the Bears as a Max Play and the OVER.

Chicago plays its second straight road game here and has a below-average QB rotation in Trevor Siemian, Justin Fields, and Nathan Peterman. Despite winning two games, the offense hasn't been that impressive, rushing for 4.3 and 3.5 yards per carry in the two games and going a combined 10-of-32 on third down. Fields, in his second season, will start and play most of the first half. Meanwhile, Cleveland's offense has averaged 22 points and plays its second straight home contest. The offense had great balance last week with 174 yards rushing (5.4 yards per carry) and 229 passing yards, while the defense has allowed 3.1 and 3.3 yards per carry in the two games. QBs Joshua Dobbs and Josh Rosen haven't thrown a pick in two preseason games, and Cleveland is on a 15-4 straight-up run in the preseason. Play Cleveland.

All the talk is on Bears' rookie QB Justin Fields getting his first NFL start, but don't ignore this exceptionally talented defense. We don't know how the mobile young QB will do, but we do know Chicago's great defense keeps them in games, and the are off of a 20-17 win over Cincinnati. The Bears are 53-31 ATS after scoring seven points or fewer in the first half in two consecutive games. Cleveland's defense isn't elite and hasn't played that way after two games. They are #22 in pass defense allowing 277 yards per game and #20 in points surrendered (27 per game). The Browns were in the role of favorite last week and failed to cover in a 31-21 win while allowing Houston to go 8-of-14 on third down. They're last in the NFL in third-down 'D' at 62.9%. NFL home teams that allowed 24+ points per game the previous season are 22-56 ATS after playing a game where 50 or more total points were scored. Play Chicago.

With two games left, is Cleveland going to win any games? They won their only game a year ago under this coaching staff in the second to last game of the season, upsetting the Chargers. They don't have to win to cover this betting number against a Chicago squad that is 4-10 and going nowhere. With a game at Pittsburgh on deck to end the season, this is the best chance the Browns have to avoid going 0-16, so expect a strong effort. Cleveland's strength is on defense, #16 in yards allowed, and seventh at stopping the run. The Browns are 20-9-1 ATS away against a team with a losing home record. They are also 22-10 OVER the total after allowing 99 or fewer rushing yards in two straight games. The Bears return home from a two-game trek, plus playing three of their last four on the road. This is only the third time all season they've been favored and they lost the first two straight-up. Chicago is #30 in the NFL in yards on offense, while the defense has allowed 123 points the last five games (24.6 ppg). The Bears are 4-9 ATS at home against a team with a losing road record, plus they've failed to cover seven straight games as a favorite. Also, playing the total on a team like the Bears in a non-conference game when they come off a division tilt with the total between 35.5 and 42 points and the OVER is 39-12. This is a low NFL total, so back the dog in a high-scoring battle. Back Cleveland and the OVER.