Carolina Panthers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Point Spread Picks

Tampa Bay went from a 6-2 start to 7-7. They're on a 1-5 SU, 0-6 ATS run after a crushing loss to Atlanta at home, 29-28. QB Baker Mayfield has six touchdowns and five interceptions over the last five contests. The defense is 25th in yards allowed, 20th on third down, and 24th in points (25.3 per game). Meanwhile, Carolina is 4-2 at home and is on an 8-5 ATS run. In their last home game, they were a double-digit underdog against the Rams, but won, 31-28. The defense is 14th in points given up, while QB Bryce Young has 18 TDs and seven picks in his last 13 games. With both teams at 7-7 fighting for the division title, back the home dog. Play Carolina.

Tampa Bay had its four-game win streak snapped 26-24 at Dallas, and now the Buccaneers need to win out and get help from other teams to make the postseason. They outgained the Cowboys 411-317 and held Dallas to just 31 rushing yards on 20 carries, but still came up short. Tampa Bay has won eight of the past nine meetings with Carolina while covering the number in seven of them. The Buccaneers won the first meeting 26-23 in overtime on Dec. 1 when they held the Panthers to 78 yards on the ground and outgained them 445-367. Carolina had lost four before its 36-30 overtime win over Arizona. Bryce Young completed 17 for 26 for 158 yards, and the Cardinals ran the ball 36 times. The Panthers have lost 14 of their last 15 road games and their past five at Tampa Bay. The Bucs have gone UNDER 10 of 15 home games and are on a 5-2 ATS run. Tampa Bay has allowed only 17.2 points per game in the past five games, and Carolina averages 18.9 points this season, which is seventh-worst in the NFL. Take the Buccaneers and the UNDER.

Combine the Golden Gophers (-3000) and the Cornhuskers (-2500) and the Buccaneers (-295) into a 3-team parlay at -228 odds.

Tampa Bay blew a shot to clinch the NFC South last week in a 23-13 loss at home to the Saints as a favorite. In their last four games as a favorite, the Bucs averaged 16.75 points while losing two of those straight up. The Buccaneers are 24-43 ATS against teams that average 5.7 or fewer yards per pass. Carolina lost to Tampa Bay in the first meeting on the road, 21-18, in December but covered. The Panthers are 16-6 ATS off a road loss by 21+ points, plus 19-7 ATS after scoring six or fewer points. They're also 38-21 ATS at home off a non-conference tilt, 82-56 ATS revenging a loss to an opponent, and 35-16 ATS at home after getting outgained by 100 or more total yards in the last game. Play Carolina as a Max Play.