Carolina Panthers vs St. Louis Rams Point Spread Picks

The Rams have won three games already this season, already outperforming their win total from a year ago. Bettors have suddently embraced this team, with nearly 80% on them this week. I won't be among them. I like where this Panthers team is headed. We were on Carolina last week as the Panthers got their first win and I think they come into this one beaming with confidence. They played the Super Bowl winning Saints to within 2 points on the road. Matt Moore somewhat came into his own last week, passing for over 300 yards and two TDs, and the Carolina offense appears to be revived. This is a St. Louis team that is improved, but is still young, and more than capable of losing to anyone in the NFL as they proved by dropping their game to the Lions by 38 points. The Panthers have been picking up the cash as a road dog of 3 or less where they are 12-4-2 ATS in their last 18. Under John Fox, this team is 41-27 ATS as an underdog including 31-18 ATS as a road dog. Their offense appears ready to step up and I like the Panthers to notch their second straight win, or at least keep this game close. I also like the OVER. Carolina has played OVER to a 5-1 mark as a dog of 3 or less. The Rams have shown the ability to score at a rate much higher than a year ago, where they reached 20 just twice, having done so three times this season. I expect more scoring here than this low number. Carolina covers and the total finishes OVER.

It never ceases to amaze me how linesmakers and the public continue to fail to adjust to reality. Carolina, the preseason darling, can do no wrong in their minds. What we see, however, is a very average team laying a touchdown to an equivalent opponent. The Panthers are 5-4 SU and 2-5 ATS. They have given up more points than they have scored this year. They're ranked 24th in the league in offense and 17th in defense. They are coming off a 14 point win vs. Tampa Bay on Monday night so they are feeling pretty good about themselves, which works in our favor here. But, they really are no better than the team they are facing on Sunday. St. Louis' defense is definitely suspect, ranked 26th. But their offense is 7th. They should be able to keep up with a weak Carolina offense. St. Louis' defense has looked bad against a few opponents this year but against bad offenses like Carolina's, they have done OK. They gave up 10 to Denver, 20 to San Francisco, 14 to Arizona. The teams that have scored over 20 on them all have offenses that are ranked higher than Carolina's (Detroit, Seattle, San Diego, KC). The point here is that these teams are about equal and we are getting a touchdown on one of them. That's value. To top it off, the Rams need this more than does Carolina. St. Louis dropped a squeaker last week to Seattle, dropping them to 4-5. Another loss and they are in big trouble. We expect a top effort and a cover from the Rams. The icing on the cake? Carolina is 2-11 ATS as home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points the past three seasons. Rams here.

Really, I wasn't planning on picking Carolina again for a third straight week just because they have cashed in for us in a big way the last two. But, they just bubbled back up to the top of this week's list again. Carolina's on a tear and I think the ride will continue again on Sunday vs. a Bulger-less St. Louis team. The Panthers are finally playing like the Super Bowl team of one year ago. Jake Delhomme has calmed down and gotten his confidence and poise back (11 TDs/2 INT in last five games). It's taken two thirds of a season, but they've finally gotten "used to" playing without Steve Smith and Stephen Davis. They've played through tremendous adversity this season and I think it has made them stronger. They now believe in themselves and their playoff chances in a big way. St. Louis is another story. Against lowly San Francisco, averaging 28 points allowed per game, the Rams managed only 16 points. The Rams lost Marc Bulger and after starting the season 4-2, they've slipped to .500. Marshall Faulk is out and Steven Jackson has a sprained knee, which could force Arlen Harris to start. Even if Jackson plays, he will probably be less than 100%. The Rams' strength is their passing game - ranked 4th in the league. With Bulger, the Rams averaged 300 yards per game passing. While solid, 80-year-old Chris Chandler isn't going to be lighting up the scoreboard. The Rams will now be going into Carolina and the place will be rocking. I know, detractors will point to the fact that Carolina's played some pretty bad teams during their recent resurrgence. But, don't worry about that. They did what very good teams should do against bad teams - they blow them out. They've won by an average score of 31-18 over their past four. Expect Nick Goings (three straight 100+ yard games) to have success against the league's 28th ranked rush defense. The Rams, we know, are a different team away from home. They have dropped their last three road games by an average score of 38-16. In their last six games, the Rams have only beaten the struggling Seahawks and league-worst 49ers. December road underdogs that are struggling tend to continue their slides as dogs off 2+ ATS losses fail to cover on the road to the tune of 72%. As an added bonus, there's at least a 50% chance that Mike Martz will make a bonehead decision that will cost his team 7 points. Three star pick: Carolina minus 6.5.