Carolina Panthers vs San Francisco 49ers

San Francisco is No. 1 defensively in the league allowing 11.5 points per game, plus second in yards allowed. The 49ers are on a 13-3 run UNDER the total, as well as 10-1 UNDER on natural grass. All four of their games this season have gone UNDER, plus they're 15-5-1 UNDER after allowing 90 or fewer rushing yards in the last game. Carolina's defense was strong last season and is #14 in points allowed this year. It's the offense that is terrible behind new QB Baker Mayfield (4 TDs, 3 INTs). The Panthers are last in the NFL in converting third downs (25.5%) and last in total offense eking out 262.3 yards per contest. They have scored 19, 14, and 16 points in the last three games, all UNDER the total. Carolina is 60-39 UNDER at home in the first half of the season. And NFL home teams off an upset loss by 10 or more points as a favorite are 68-27 UNDER the total. Take San Francisco/Carolina UNDER the total.

The San Francisco 49ers remain the only unbeaten team in the NFC. They will host Carolina which is off to a 4-2 start. Carolina comes in as an equally hot team and is fresh off their bye and has had two weeks to prepare. Carolina has gotten great QB play out of Kyle Allen who replaced the injured Cam Newton and has a 107.5 QB rating. He has led Carolina to four straight wins by an average margin of 10 points per game. The Carolina defense has also forced 14 turnovers in those four games. Both of these teams defend the pass exceptionally well, and the team that can run the ball here has an edge. The Niners offense has sputtered in the last two games generating just 307 yards per game and has rushed for fewer than four yards per carry in the two games. With the Panthers off their bye, this one looks like a FG-margin type game. Take Carolina.

Kyle Shanahan was hired to revive a moribund San Francisvo offense and he has his work cut out for him as the 49ers finished near the bottom in nearly every offensive category last season. The Niners averaged only 19.3 points and 308.1 yards of offense per game and will start journeyman Brian Hoyer at quarterback with C.J. Beathard as the backup. The 49ers loaded up with defensive players in the draft and they have a new coordinator in Robert Saleh, who will try to emulate the success he had as a Seattle assistant. Carolina has a veteran defense that will be bolstered by Julius Peppers, who returns to the team he played for from 2002-2009. Cam Newton recorded career lows in completion percentage and passer rating and he's coming off shoulder surgery in March. The Panthers have stayed UNDER four of the last five years in the first week of the season and they were 3-0-1 UNDER their last four games last year. San Francisco has gone UNDER 20 of its last 28 home contests. Shanahan will need some time to turn this situation around and he's facing a solid defense in this matchup. Take the UNDER.

This game should be a defensive tug-of-war, as each team has shown inefficiencies on offense and each brings a complete team on the defensive side of the ball with few weaknesses. Carolina has struggled on offense, especially against the very good defenses they have faced this season. The top five defenses they saw this year were two games against New Orleans where they scored a combined 30 points, San Francisco for 10 points, Arizona with 6 points and vs. Seattle getting just  7 points. The Panthers' five games against top defenses shows just 10.6 points per game scored! This is also a team that failed to generate as much as 300 total yards of offense in seven games on the season. The good news is the defense held nine teams to 15 points or less, and no team topped the 20-point mark against them at home. From week four on, the 49ers have been iron clad on defense, allowing no more than 24 points in any game. On average over that span they allowed a stingy 14.9 ppg. If you look closely at the outliers here, San Francisco allowed a max of 24 points in their last 14 games, and Carolina no more than 20 in any home game. If the max numbers are hit on both sides (not likely), that gets this game to 44. So, it would take outlier defensive breakdowns on both sides to get this 3 points past the total. There's only one way to go here - play on the UNDER.