Carolina Panthers vs Pittsburgh Steelers Point Spread Picks

Pittsburgh upgraded the QB rotation in the offseason, and they've scored 45 points in two preseason games. In their other preseason road game, they won at Jacksonville, 31-25, with 301 passing yards between Skylar Thompson and Mason Rudolph. The defense is allowing 21 points per game in two August tilts. Carolina won't play its starters, so QBs Jack Plummer and Bryce Perkins will run the offense. Plummer threw for 278 yards in last year's Week 3 preseason game, a 31-26 win over Buffalo. The defense has given up 50 points in two games, including 109 and 125 rushing yards. In their last six preseason finales, the Panthers have scored 24, 25, 34, 21, 17, and 31 points (25.3 ppg). Take Pittsburgh/Carolina OVER the total. 

Pittsburgh is averaging 21.6 points this preseason, getting solid play from backup QBs Joshua Dobbs, Mason Rudolph and Devlin Hodges. The starters are set all-around, but the reserves continue to compete for roles. Any NFL team off two straight wins by 10 points or more is 52-25 OVER the total. They face a Carolina squad that has an injury to QB Cam Newton, so there is competition between backup quarterbacks Will Grier and Kyle Allen. Carolina is working on six days of rest and NFL teams are 44-18 OVER a total of 35 or less playing with six or fewer days of rest. These teams met in Week 4 of preseason last season and Pittsburgh won 39-24. Allen threw for 250 yards for the Panthers, while the QBs Mason and Dobbs of the Steelers combined for 241 yards, three TDs, and no picks. Play the OVER.

Each of these teams will come into this game having won five of their last six. The Steelers are a tough team to beat at home as they own a 158-50-1 straight-up record here as a home favorite and have been even better lately at 20-as home chalk. In the Mike Tomlin era ,the Steelers are 71-27 at home and 52-27 vs. winning teams. Pittsburgh also owns a 34-8-1 SU record here as a non-conference home favorite. The biggest edge may be at QB. Ben Roethlisberger has a passer rating of 102.9 in his last 42 games while Cam Newton owns just an 86.5 passer rating in his last 44 road games. He eats up bad pass defenses, especially. The Steelers are 8-1 straight-up the since last season vs. teams like Carolina that allow 235+ passing yards per game. They are also 14-2 the past three seasons vs. teams that allow over 5.6 yards per play (Carolina's defense allows 5.8). This one could be close but Pittsburgh seems to have a way to come out with the win at home. Take Pittsburgh on the moneyline.