Carolina Panthers vs New York Jets Point Spread Picks

The Carolina Panthers have not won more than seven games since the 2017 season. They are off to a 3-3 start to the season. The offense has come to life, as the Panthers have produced over 400 yards in each of their last two games, while holding opponents under 300 yards in the same period. The Panthers are 3-1 in their previous four games. The New York Jets are the only team without a win at 0-6. The Jets continue to find ways to lose, having lost three of their six games by exactly two points each. They still may be time change weary after playing last week in London. The offense continues to struggle, while the defense has allowed 27 or more points in five of its six games. The Jets have not made the playoffs since 2015, and they won't make it this year either. I like Carolina on the moneyline.

New York has a veteran backup in QB Tyrod Taylor, while Adrian Martinez was 6-of-10 for 104 yards last week against Washington. The defense gave up 331 yards and allowed Washington to go 9-of-17 on third down. The Jets are on an 8-2 run OVER the total in preseason. Carolina's defense surrendered 274 yards in a 17-3 loss at New England. This is a low total, and the Panthers have lost four straight preseason games, allowing an average of 22.75 points. Take New York/Carolina OVER the total.

New York has a fighting chance this year because it fired Adam Gase, who shouldn't have been hired in the first place, and hired a new coach in Robert Saleh, the former 49ers defensive coordinator. Another upgrade will be at quarterback where the No. 2 pick in the draft Zach Wilson will take over, and he showed a strong arm and plenty of talent in the preseason. The Jets also signed wide receiver Corey Davis out of free agency to give them another reason to feel much-improved over last season. Davis set a career-high with 984 receiving yards and five touchdowns last year with the Titans. Defensively, the Jets are strong on the line, although they will miss Carl Lawson, who suffered a season-ending injury in the preseason. Still, they added some free agents at linebacker and drafted well to help in the secondary. Carolina will give Sam Darnold a chance to prove himself again after a mediocre tenure with the Jets, and he gets to face his former team immediately. Matt Ruhle finished 5-11 in his first season with the Panthers, with eight of the losses by eight points or fewer. New York stayed UNDER three of its last four games, and the Panthers' last three games went UNDER last season. New York is 9-4 UNDER its last 13 games as an underdog, and Carolina is 0-5 ATS its past five games as a home favorite. Play the Jets and the UNDER.

Carolina has stayed UNDER in three of its last four games and the Panthers are second in the NFL in yards allowed (278.0 per game) while allowing only 18.0 points per game. Offensively, the Panthers are only #17 in total yards and averaging just 21.3 points per game. New York is #25 in total offense yards and scoring only 20.1 points per contest. The Jets come off a 15-10 loss at Tampa Bay two weeks ago in a game that went UNDER by nearly 20 points. Josh McCown was 23-of-39 for 262 yards with a touchdown and interception and the Jets gained only 56 yards on the ground on just 2.95 yards per carry. Carolina is 5-2 UNDER its last seven road games and 11-4 UNDER its last 15 games following a game when it gained at least 350 total yards of offense. The Jets are 8-1-1 UNDER their last 10 games after an ATS loss and 8-3 UNDER coming off a bye week. Also, the Jets have stayed UNDER in 13 of their last 22 dating to last season. Play this matchup to stay UNDER the total.

Carolina's defense was exposed last week by the offensive-minded New Orleans Saints who hammered them for 31 points. Probably the biggest disguise in football is the fact that there is nothing extraordinary about the Carolina defense, despite the numbers they have produced. The Panthers grade out at allowing 5.3 yards per play against teams that have gained 5.5 yards a play, so they are just a tick above average. The Jets win vs. Oakland last week has moved them to 6-7 and still have some faint playoffs hopes alive. The problems is that the Jets have faced is a defense that has allowed 28.7 points per game over their last 10 games. While the offense exploded for 37 points last week, it simply isn't strong enough to keep up with what the defense is allowing, especially vs. a good team like Carolina. And they won't get away with it as they did vs. Oakland. The Panthers have made quick work of losing teams where they are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 facing one. The Jets are 38-17-1 to the OVER after allowing 350+ yards in their previous game, as well as 31-15 to the OVER after gaining 350+, both apply here. The Panthers are 5-1 to the OVER after a loss in their last six, and the home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings in this series. Take Carolina and the OVER.