Carolina Panthers vs New Orleans Saints Point Spread Picks

Two blowout wins to start the season and now a six-game skid....will the actual Saints show up? Two of those losses were to the Eagles and Falcons by two and three points. They've missed QB Derek Carr (8 TDs, 4 INTs), but he's back at practice and will start after missing three games. The Saints catch a break in the schedule, facing the worst team in the NFL. Carolina QBs have combined for more picks (11) than TDs (9) on an offense that ranks 29th in yards, 30th on third down (31.58%), and 29th in scoring. The defense is just as bad, ranked 31st in total yards allowed (387.5 per game) and last in points surrendered (33.9 per game). The Panthers are on a 3-22 SU, 6-18-1 ATS run. Play New Orleans. 

Carolina has a new head coach in Dave Canales, the former Tampa Bay offensive coordinator. They heavily invested in upgrading the offensive line for second-year QB Bryce Young. They also got him some help trading for WR Diontae Johnson while TE Tommy Tremble came on strong at the end of last year. Carolina's defense was fourth in the NFL in yards allowed and 12th in yards per rushing attempt in 2023. They return talented defensive tackle Derrick Brown. The pass rush looks much improved with newcomers Jadeveon Clowney (9.5 sacks with the Ravens) and D.J. Wonnum (8 sacks with the Vikings in 2023). Carolina is on a 9-2 run UNDER the total. New Orleans lost a lot of veteran players this offseason, including former star WR Michael Thomas. The Saints have a below-average offensive line that ranked 21st in rushing and 31st in yards per carry (3.6). The Saints also have an aging defense and are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six September games. And the last five meetings between these division rivals have all gone UNDER the total. Play Carolina + UNDER the total. 

Carolina came close in Chris Tabor's first game as interim head coach losing 21-18 to Tampa Bay and covering the 3.5-point spread and the game went OVER by two points. Chuba Hubbard ran for 104 yards and a TD for the Panthers and Bryce Young threw for 178 yards. New Orleans lost its third in a row and went OVER by 13 points as Detroit won 33-28. The Saints have gone OVER four of their past six games and they have been moneyburners with a 2-8 ATS record their past 10 games. Carolina is 6-3-1 ATS the past 10 meetings, including a 20-17 loss as a 3-point underdog on Sept. 18 when it pushed. New Orleans is 0-4-1 ATS against the NFC South and 0-7-1 ATS its past eight games against all NFC opponents. Amazingly, the Saints are 0-7 ATS their past seven at home and QB Derek Carr is questionable with a concussion. New Orleans is 1-9-1 ATS as a favorite and the Panthers are 41-17 OVER their past 58 games as road underdogs of 3.5-10.0 points. Play the Panthers as a Max Play and the OVER.