Carolina Panthers vs Miami Dolphins Point Spread Picks

Miami started 0-3 with a demanding schedule. They finally secured a win against the Jets, 27-21, thanks to a 3-0 turnover advantage. QB Tua Tagovailoa (7 TDs, 4 INTs) has led an offense that has averaged 25 points over the last three games. Meanwhile, Carolina is getting outscored by 20 points, the third-worst differential in the NFC. QB Bryce Young (5 TDs, 3 INTs) has 31 touchdowns and 22 picks in his career, and gets little help from a ground game that averages 3.9 yards per carry and ranks 26th in rushing yards. The offense is 24th in total yards, 26th in points, and 20th on third down, while the defense is 23rd against the run. Play Miami.

Carolina is a huge underdog but NFL dogs that are outscored on average by double-digits are 90-46 ATS after allowing 40+ points. The last two times Carolina was a double-digit dog they covered in a 13-3 loss at Baltimore and won straight up over Tampa Bay, 21-3, as a +13 dog (both last season). The Panthers are 11-2 ATS after giving up 40+ points and 78-51 ATS versus defenses that surrender 24+ points per contest. After dazzling the NFL with 70 points against Denver, Miami's offense has come back to earth averaging 25.5 points in the last two games. And NFL favorites like the Dolphins are 9-30 ATS after topping 450 total yards of offense in three straight contests. Play Carolina. 

I think the Carolina Panthers are getting so much media attention right now with Cam Newton back at quarterback that they have become over-valued. Miami is still under the radar due to the fact that they started the season at 1-7. Quietly, the Dolphins have won and covered three straight games, which includes a 12 point win vs. Baltimore on the road. The Dolphins are moving the ball on offense better than they have all season, and it has helped the defense. The Maimi defense has allowed just 12 points per game over its last three. I think the wrong team is favored here. Make the play on Miami.

This is a relatively high posted total for a preseason game, but it's due to last week's performances by the two teams who both went OVER. However, this is the time to go with the UNDER as both coaches will be looking for a better defensive showing. Carolina might have underestimated Bills quarterback Nathan Peterman and the Panthers were without their top cornerback, James Bradberry, who was nursing a minor groin injury but either way the first team defense is looking to redeem itself this week. Miami will do the same after losing to Tampa Bay 26-24 and the Dolphins have depth at quarterback especially after David Fales completed 8-of-11 for 115 yards and journeyman Brock Osweiler finished 10-of-21 for 83 yards. Bryce Petty and Ryan Tannehill, who had been out since 2016, also saw time. Cam Newton got into it with former teammate Kelvin Benjamin before the game, but regained his composure to complete six of nine passes for 84 yards. Taylor Heinecke went 7-of-9 for 121 yards and a touchdown and Garrett Gilbert went 7-of-12 for 93 yards and a TD. The Panthers are laying too many points in this situation for a preseason game and look for both defenses to improve. Take the Dolphins and the UNDER.

The Miami Dolphins and the Carolina Panthers have both struggled with offense all season long. It is amazing, despite the offensive flash, that these teams enter tonight with a combined 10-7 record, which can only say that as bad as the offenses have been, the defenses have been better and kept them in games. The Panthers have already claimed three wins without topping the 20 point mark. The Dolphins have equalled that mark, with three of their four wins coming in a game where they failed to top the 20 point mark. It certainly looks like tonight's winner is likely to score 20 or less as well, with a good chance of one of these teams failing to get to 10. The Dolphins have already been shutout twice on the season, and Carolina has averaged 16.3 points per game at home this season. Make the play on the UNDER.