Carolina Panthers vs Jacksonville Jaguars Point Spread Picks

Carolina finally showed some improvement, finishing 7-2 ATS in its last nine games of the 2024 season, and Bryce Young appears to have renewed confidence in head coach Dave Canales' second year with the Panthers. He has an exciting new target in Tetairoa McMillan, who was picked eighth overall in the 2025 NFL draft. The Panthers' defense was a disaster, as it allowed the most points in NFL history. However, the good news is that they invested heavily in rebuilding the defensive line, acquiring Bobby Brown III and Tershawn Wharton, and drafting Cam Jackson. Carolina has covered seven of eight as an underdog and five straight as a dog of 3.5-10.0 points. The Panthers have gone UNDER in six consecutive games against the AFC South, and Jacksonville has stayed UNDER in six of eight games versus the NFC South. Jaguars fans are optimistic that this could finally be a breakout season, especially with two-way player Travis Hunter on board; however, there still needs to be significant improvement following a 4-13 season. Trevor Lawrence continues to sustain injuries frequently, and he has accumulated 68 turnovers in his four years in the league. Take the Panthers and the UNDER.

Carolina has been competitive the past two games after changing coaches and the Panthers have covered the number in both by first defeating Atlanta 9-7 and then losing 33-30 as a 3.5-point underdog against Green Bay on Sunday and the game soared OVER by 23.5 points. Bryce Young threw for a career-high 312 yards and two TDs and the Panthers nearly came back from a 14-point deficit. Carolina outgained the Packers 394-369 and the Panthers are hoping Young's performance will be the start of a turnaround for him and the team. Jacksonville has hit the skids losing four straight following a 30-12 loss at Tampa Bay. The Jaguars have allowed 29.5 points per game during the losing streak. Trevor Lawrence hasn't been close to 100 percent healthy the past few games and last week he threw two interceptions and completed 17 of 29 for 211 yards. Jacksonville is 8-20 ATS its past 28 December games, 7-16 ATS overall following a loss and 4-12 as a home favorite. Carolina is 41-18 OVER as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0 points and the Jaguars are 9-2 OVER after totaling fewer than 90 yards rushing their previous game. Jacksonville is 7-3 OVER its past 10 December games. Take the Panthers and the OVER.

Jacksonville got its second win in a row when Leonard Fournette ran 29 times for 225 yards and Josh Lambo kicked a 33-yard field goal as time expired. Gardner Minshew had another solid performance in finishing 19-of-33 for 213 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions against the Broncos. The Jaguars outgained Denver 455-371 and averaged 7.1 yards per rush and the game went OVER by 13 points. Kyle Allen threw for 232 yards in Carolina's win over Houston, but he also lost three fumbles. The Panthers have covered only one of their last five home games dating to last season and they are 3-7 ATS their last 10 following a win. Also, the OVER is 10-3 in Jacksonville's last 13 games after an ATS win. The Jaguars are sixth in the league in rushing yards per game (135.3) and Carolina is #24 against the run allowing 130.8 yards. This is a low posted total due to Carolina's score against the Texans, but the Panthers put up 38 against Arizona the week before. Jacksonville's only losses were to Kansas City and then a one-point loss at Houston. Take the Jaguars for a Max Play and also play the OVER.

There is a relatively high posted total for this matchup due to Carolina's first two games in which they scored 27 points in each game, but that won't be enough to make up for the weak Jacksonville offense. The Jaguars did beat New England in Week 1 due to some big plays, but they were back to normal in last Thursday's 12-8 loss to Tampa Bay. Blake Bortles was 8-of-13 for 65 yards, but his starting job is on the line as he has shown no improvement from last year's disappointing season. Chad Henne was 6-of-10 for 44 yards and Brandon Allen went 10-of-15 for 144 yards. The Jaguars rushed for only 57 yards on 20 carries and didn't score until the fourth quarter and two of their points were scored on a safety. Jacksonville coach Doug Marrone is 4-7 UNDER in preseason with the Bills and Jaguars and Jacksonville curiously is 7-0 UNDER its last seven Thursday preseason games, including last week. Cam Newton plans to play only a series or two in his first appearance since shoulder surgery in March. Take advantage of an inflated number and play the UNDER.

Many expect the Jacksonville Jaguars to take a step forward this season, but how much further? This is a team that has a long long way to go. if you took the Jags' wins from the last three years, which total nine, they wouldn't have made the playoffs last year with three season's worth of wins. I think they are getting a bit too much respect with a short line at home vs. Carolina. Jacksonville has gone 9-39 the last three years, and in those 39 losses, 36 came by four points or more points, so the line certainly looks shaky for this one. Cam Newton was simply not healthy most of last season after a car accident. He is most dangerous as a dual-threat QB, as his legs get equal billing to his arm, and he begins this season healthy. Carolina still has a strong defense, and, while Jacksonville will probably be better offensively this season, they still have a long way to go. The Jags are 18-37-1 ATS at home in their last 56 including 0-8 ATS the past two seasons in September. Under Gus Bradley, they are 10-19 ATS as an underdog. The Jags don't have the benefit of Carolina taking them lightly, as they will be fired up for the season opener. Take Carolina as short chalk.