Carolina Panthers vs Indianapolis Colts Point Spread Picks

Carolina broke through and got its first win 15-13 over Houston as Bryce Young outdueled C.J. Stroud in a battle of the NFL's top two draft picks and Eddy Pineiro kicked a 23-yard field goal as time expired to give the Panthers the victory. Young threw for 235 yards and a TD and led a 15-play, 86-yard drive to help the Panthers snap their losing streak. It was Carolina's best defensive performance of the season as it yielded only 229 total yards. The Panthers are 4-0-1 ATS their past five games as home underdogs of 0.5-3.0 points and 5-1-1 ATS as home dogs overall. Indianapolis is 1-8 ATS its past nine as a favorite and the Colts come off a 38-27 loss to New Orleans while allowing 511 total yards and the game sailed OVER by 21 points for the third OVER in a row for the Colts, who have allowed an average of 38 points while losing their past three games. Indianapolis is 8-2 OVER its past 10 games and 12-4 OVER as a favorite of 0.5-3.0 points. Play the Panthers and the OVER.

Carolina's defense was #18 in the NFL last season in yards allowed, points, and versus the pass. The 16 interceptions their QBs threw were tied for the fourth-most in the NFL, and it will probably be worse in 2021 with a rotation of Sam Darnold, P.J. Walker, and Will Grier. Interceptions set the other team up often with excellent field position for field goals and TDs. This opener is indoors in Indianapolis at Lucas Oil Stadium. Indy coach Frank Reich's preseason home games have been scores of 20-19, 23-17, 27-17, and 21-18. Take the OVER.

There is a lot of "what could have been" for these teams as we head into the last weeks weeks of the regular season. Both looked like solid playoff teams early in the season, but Indianapolis is just 1-6 in its last seven games and the Panthers just 1-7 in their last eight. Indianapolis had must-win games vs. Tampa Bay and New Orleans and couldn't get it done, so I'm not sure how much they bring on this week with nothing left to play for. Carolina has named Wil Frier at QB this week and rookie QBs have done very well this season and he does have the best player on the field in Christian McCaffrey against what is likely a disinterested Indianapolis defense that has allowed 31 points or more in three straight games all of which were must-win situations. Take Carolina.

There is a lot of talk about which will happen first - the Packers losing, or the Colts winning. The Packers went to 11-0 on Thursday, while the Colts try to regroup off their bye week at 0-10. But, there is a lot to fix. After four competitive games where Indianapolis lost by less than 10 points in all of them, this team has lost each of their last five by 10 or more. The offense, which by now should be improving, has taken a step back as the Colts have mustered all of 27 points in their last four games (less than a TD per contest). While the defense has not been great, considering the amount of time they spend on the field, they have held up reasonably well as seven of their last nine opponents have been under 30 points. The Panthers have only managed the 30-point plateau twice this season. Carolina is coming off an 84-point game in combined score last week, so this number is inordinately high considering that one of the teams scores less than 7 points per game over their last four. The Panthers have played five straight UNDERs after hitting the 30-point mark in their last game, as well as putting together a 20-8 UNDER mark in their last 28 as a favorite. The UNDER hits here.