Carolina Panthers vs Houston Texans Point Spread Picks

Both of these quarterback rooms are compromised in some way heading into Friday. Houston lost Graham Mertz to a season-ending ACL tear in the opener, and has since leaned on Davis Mills and newly signed Brett Rypien to split snaps behind C.J. Stroud, who remains entrenched as the Week 1 starter with no reason to play this late in camp. Carolina’s situation is thinner than it looks: Haynes King is out with a hamstring injury from the Hall of Fame Game, and Dave Canales has said Bryce Young’s snaps hinge entirely on how much volume the Panthers get out of this week’s joint practice. If that practice delivers, Kyle Trask takes the bulk of the workload behind center for Carolina instead. A finale built around unsettled backup competitions on both sidelines plays like more of a coin flip than the number suggests, and Houston getting the better of that number is the right side of it. Take Houston. 

Houston has covered the spread four consecutive games while winning three outright, including its 20-13 victory over New Orleans two weeks ago before the bye week. C.J. Stroud threw for 199 yards and two TDs and the Texans' defense stopped several drives inside their 20-yard line. The Texans already have matched last season's win total and the rookie Stroud has been more than adequate keeping the Texans in the game while throwing for 1,660 yards and nine TDs with just one interception. Stroud broke the record for most passes to start a career without an interception. Houston has gone UNDER its past three games while allowing only 13.3 points per game and the UNDER is 6-0 in Houston's past six games following an ATS win. Carolina has yet to win a game and is 0-5-1 ATS and the Panthers are probably already planning on getting the No. 1 draft pick. Carolina is No. 22 in total offense yards and No. 21 scoring 18.7 points per game. Bryce Young has played five games and has six TD passes and four picks. The Panthers are 9-20-2 ATS its past 31 home games and they have stayed UNDER five of seven home games. Houston is 13-6 UNDER on the road. Take the Texans and the UNDER.

Carolina has been impressive on offense in wins over the Jets and Saints. They are #14 in the NFL in total yards and ninth in passing yards behind new QB Sam Darnold and sparkplug Christian McCaffrey. McCaffrey had 30 touches in Week 1 and 29 more in Week 2. The Panthers are 38-16-1 OVER the total on n FieldTurf. The defense has been great, but both games were at home, and in their last 13 road games, Carolina has allowed 28.8 points per game. Houston's revamped defense is still a work in progress, allowing 26 points per game so far, with both going OVER the total. It's part of a 6-0 run OVER in the first month of the season. In addition, NFL road teams like Carolina that come off a win by 10+ points over a division rival are 76-37 OVER the total in the first month of the season. Play this game to go OVER the total.

Kyle Allen was tremendous in his second career start in completing 19-of-26 for 261 yards and four touchdowns while filling in for Cam Newton. Carolina defeated the Cardinals 38-20 and also got a great performance from Christian McCaffrey, who rushed for 153 yards on 24 carries. Allen will be the starter for the time being as Newton is expected to be out several weeks and this week he'll face a Houston defense that is ranked only #22 in total yards allowed and #23 in passing yards. Meanwhile, the Panther defense is second in the league behind only New England in total yards and passing yards allowed. DeShaun Watson passed for 351 yards for the Texans in their win over the Chargers, but it was a one-dimensional offense that could muster only 39 rushing yards on 19 carries. The Texans are just 1-4 ATS their last five games after an ATS win and Carolina has covered the number five of its last six against teams with winning records going back to last season. Allen could be the spark Carolina needs and this matchup should go to the wire. Play the Panthers.