Carolina Panthers vs Dallas Cowboys Point Spread Picks

Dallas comes off a 37-22 win over the woeful New York Jets, but the Cowboys still are dead last in the total defense rankings, allowing 412.0 yards per game. They are also last in pass defense (284.6) and #23 against the run. Carolina has covered the spread three of four, including its 27-24 win over Miami on Sunday. Rico Dowdle ran for 206 yards for the Panthers, who overcame a 17-point deficit. Bryce Young finished 19 of 30 for 198 yards, and his 4-yard TD pass to tight end Mitchell Evans put the Panthers ahead to stay. Carolina is 7-1 ATS in its past eight home games, and the Cowboys are 1-4 ATS following a win by at least 14 points. The Panthers' defense has shown significant improvement over last year's squad, ranking #12 in total yards allowed, #10 in pass defense, and #14 in rushing defense. They have covered five of six home games against opponents with losing road records. Carolina is on a current 10-4 ATS run dating to last season, and it's in a revenge situation after losing 30-14 in last year's meeting. Take the Panthers.

Dallas finished a two-game homestand with a Monday Night loss to Cincinnati, 27-20. They're on a 4-8 SU, 3-9 ATS run down to backup QB Cooper Rush. The defense is 25th in yards allowed, 30th versus the run, allowing 141.9 yards on the ground per game, and 31st in points surrendered (28.2 per game). Carolina has had an excellent second half of the season. They beat New Orleans (23-22) and the Giants (20-17) as +7 underdogs and come off three close games to elite quarterbacks, losing to KC (30-27), Tampa Bay (26-23), and at Philadelphia (22-16). The Panthers' defense is as healthy as it's been all season, and they're on a 5-0 spread run. Play Carolina. 

Dallas is in a flat spot going up against the lowly Panthers with the Cowboys having three home games against NFC opponents on deck, including a Thanksgiving Day game against Washington. The Cowboys destroyed the awful New York Giants 49-17 on Sunday, but they are 2-8-1 ATS their past 11 games after scoring more than 30 points their previous game and 3-7-1 ATS following any win. Carolina has improved its defense recently allowing only 18.6 points its past three games. The Panthers have gone UNDER four straight home games and they are 5-0 UNDER their past five November games. Carolina also has gone UNDER their past three games by an average of 10 points and the Panthers are 9-3 UNDER following an ATS loss. Carolina hopes to have cornerback Jaycee Horn return to help slow down the Dallas passing attack as he has been out since the opening week with a hamstring injury. Take the Panthers and the UNDER as a Max Play.

The Dallas Cowboys, behind Dak Prescott, have what I think is the best offense in the NFL. The issue for Dallas is on the other side of the ball. While the offense is generating 417 yards per game, the defense is allowing 402. Carolina has seen an upgrade to its offense behind Sam Darnold. Darnold is throwing for 8.3 yards per attempt and 296 yards per game, and his ball security vastly improved as he has thrown just one pick. This game sets up nicely for a pair of offenses that tend to have their way, and Darnold over his career is 14-8 to the OVER when posted as a dog up to 8 points. Prescott has thrived at home as a favorite, leading to a 20-10 mark to the OVER in that role. Play this game to go OVER the total.