Buffalo Bills vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Point Spread Picks

Buffalo came out flat after its big win over Kansas City, and the Bills inexplicably were routed by the lowly Dolphins 30-13. That is reason enough to believe the Bills will bounce back after such a performance, especially on their home turf. Tampa Bay is 1-6-1 ATS in its past eight games on turf, and the temperature is expected to be in the upper 30s with possible rain and heavy winds, which obviously won't be in the Buccaneers' favor. Tampa Bay has lost five of its past six November games, while Buffalo has won 14 of its last 15 home games. The Bills are 16-4 straight up in their past 20 against the NFC. Buffalo has gone UNDER four of five, and it is 6-0 UNDER after totaling fewer than 90 yards rushing in its previous game. The Bills are 4-0 UNDER after allowing more than 350 total yards in their last game. The Buccaneers come off a 28-23 loss to New England while yielding 166 yards rushing on 6.1 yards per carry. Take the Bills on the moneyline and the UNDER. 

Buffalo has a very good QB depth for a preseason finale in veterans Mitchell Trubisky, Mike White, and Shane Buechele. After scoring 9 points in the first two preseason games last season, the Bills scored 26 on the road at Carolina, plus topped Chicago on the road two years ago in Week 3, 24-21. Coach Sean McDermott has a winning preseason record, including 6-4 in the last preseason contest. Tampa Bay has been fairly conservative on offense in camp, opting for the short and intermediate game, which is what they did last season. The defense has allowed 7 and 14 points in two games. The average final score of Tampa Bay's last seven preseason games has been 20.8 to 11.7. Tampa Bay coach Todd Bowles has a losing August record, and at 2-0, the starters won't play. QB Kyle Trask will start. He has a career 36.4 completion percentage and was 3-of-10 for 19 yards last week, so back the visitors in a low-scoring affair. Take Buffalo + UNDER the total.

Baker Mayfield is slowed by a knee injury, but expects to play in this game although he has thrown only four touchdowns with three interceptions in Tampa Bay's past three games. The Buccaneers have scored only 19 points while losing against Detroit and Atlanta and they are #26 in the league averaging just 17.2 points per game on the season. Buffalo has been inconsistent this year and comes off a 29-25 loss to New England, but the Bills are 8-3-2 ATS their past 13 games following a loss and they have covered four of five Thursday games. Tampa Bay is 5-16-1 ATS dating to last season, 1-9-1 ATS after a loss and 0-4 ATS its past four Thursday games. Also, the Buccaneers are 5-20-2 ATS after allowing more than 150 yards rushing their previous game. Tampa Bay couldn't capitalize on Atlanta's mistakes and it faces a much tougher test on the road on a short week at Buffalo. Take the Bills.

The Buffalo Bills have the longest streak of any NFL team of not reaching the playoffs. They have been a model of inconsistency on the field. They are off to a 3-2 start, but the offense has been mostly ugly thus far. They have not passed for over 200 yards in four straight games, nor run for more than 82 but one time since the opener. They have been outgained by each of their last four opponents, and are surviving on a +8 turnover margin, which is likely to even out. When it does, they are going to lose a lot, based on what we have seen from the line of scrimmage so far. Jameis Winston was injured last game vs. Arizona but he is starting in this game. The Bucs have dropped four straight ATS, and I think they are going to come into Buffalo hungry for a win. Marginal winning teams of .600 or less, and playing a losing team often have trouble as they are 35-79 ATS as a favorite from -3.5 to -10. Take Tampa Bay.