Buffalo Bills vs Pittsburgh Steelers Point Spread Picks

Buffalo normally has been a good preseason bet with Sean McDermott as coach, but the Bills will have an incentive to perform better after their 33-6 shellacking by Chicago in Week 1. McDermott still is 14-8 straight up and 13-9 ATS in preseason and 13-9 OVER. The Bills lost to Pittsburgh 27-15 in the 2023 preseason, and they are 6-0 ATS in revenge and 4-1 ATS overall in Game 2 of preseason. The Steelers keep trying out quarterbacks, and it was Kyle Allen who got the bulk of the snaps against Houston. He completed 17 of 23 for 193 yards and a TD with one interception. Justin Fields finished 5 of 6 for 67 yards and no TDs. Russell Wilson still is out with a calf injury. Buffalo has experience as a backup quarterback with Mitchell Trubisky, who completed 10 of 18 for 82 yards against the Bears. Trubisky will likely see most of the action in this game as Shane Buechele is out with a neck injury. Pittsburgh has a healthy quarterback competition. Take the points with the Bills and the OVER.

Pittsburgh's vaunted defense is, well, not so vaunted. At 1-3, the Steelers rank #23 in yards allowed defensively, #20 against tihe pass, #15 in points surrendered, and #26 on third down (45.3%). They've allowed 29 and 24 points in the last two games, both going OVER the total. Rookie QB Kenny Pickett gets his first start after running for 2 TDs and completing 10 of 13 passes for 120 yards. Buffalo is third in the NFL offensively in total yards (412.5 per game) and second in passing yards behind QB Josh Allen (10 TDs, 3 INTs). The Bills are 19-8 OVER the total after a victory, plus 9-2 OVER at home after allowing 150 or fewer passing yards in the last game. This is only Buffalo's second home game, the other was when they scored 41 on Tennessee. With beautiful sunny weather (58 degrees) in Buffalo Sunday, look for an offensive show. Take Pittsburgh/Buffalo OVER the total.

It will be cold Sunday night in Buffalo, but that won't bother Pittsburgh, a team that loves (and thrives) playing in frigid weather. The Steelers come off a shocking home loss to Washington but still have plenty of incentive to finish the season strong as they are battling Kansas City for the top seed in the AFC. Pittsburgh is sixth offensively in points scored (27.8 per game), while the bone-crushing defense is third in yards, second versus the pass, and No. 1 in points surrendered (17.8 per game). Buffalo comes home from a road trip to San Francisco on Monday Night, so it's a long trip on short rest. Buffalo is average defensively at #20 in yards allowed, #23 versus the run, and #17 in points surrendered. The wagering value is on the talented and balanced visitors to get the victory. Play Pittsburgh on the moneyline.