Buffalo Bills vs Pittsburgh Steelers Point Spread Picks

Buffalo is sitting Josh Allen for this one, and head coach Joe Brady has been vague about which other starters will even see the field, citing a short week off a joint practice and last Saturday's game. Kyle Allen is set to take the bulk of the snaps behind center for the Bills. Pittsburgh is going the other direction: new head coach Mike McCarthy has already ruled out both Aaron Rodgers and Mason Rudolph, turning this game over entirely to Will Howard and Drew Allar, the two young arms competing for a roster spot behind Rodgers. That is a real audition on one sideline and a light rehearsal on the other, and it shapes how this one should play out. Pittsburgh's kids have every incentive to sling it and make a case for a 53-man spot two days out from cutdowns, while Buffalo's lineup is thinner on continuity than the name at the top of the depth chart suggests. Backup-heavy football in the preseason finale tends to play loose: more busted coverages, more broken tackles, drives that stall out instead of getting stopped. That combination points in the same direction on both bets. Take Pittsburgh on the moneyline and take the OVER.

Buffalo normally has been a good preseason bet with Sean McDermott as coach, but the Bills will have an incentive to perform better after their 33-6 shellacking by Chicago in Week 1. McDermott still is 14-8 straight up and 13-9 ATS in preseason and 13-9 OVER. The Bills lost to Pittsburgh 27-15 in the 2023 preseason, and they are 6-0 ATS in revenge and 4-1 ATS overall in Game 2 of preseason. The Steelers keep trying out quarterbacks, and it was Kyle Allen who got the bulk of the snaps against Houston. He completed 17 of 23 for 193 yards and a TD with one interception. Justin Fields finished 5 of 6 for 67 yards and no TDs. Russell Wilson still is out with a calf injury. Buffalo has experience as a backup quarterback with Mitchell Trubisky, who completed 10 of 18 for 82 yards against the Bears. Trubisky will likely see most of the action in this game as Shane Buechele is out with a neck injury. Pittsburgh has a healthy quarterback competition. Take the points with the Bills and the OVER.

Pittsburgh's vaunted defense is, well, not so vaunted. At 1-3, the Steelers rank #23 in yards allowed defensively, #20 against tihe pass, #15 in points surrendered, and #26 on third down (45.3%). They've allowed 29 and 24 points in the last two games, both going OVER the total. Rookie QB Kenny Pickett gets his first start after running for 2 TDs and completing 10 of 13 passes for 120 yards. Buffalo is third in the NFL offensively in total yards (412.5 per game) and second in passing yards behind QB Josh Allen (10 TDs, 3 INTs). The Bills are 19-8 OVER the total after a victory, plus 9-2 OVER at home after allowing 150 or fewer passing yards in the last game. This is only Buffalo's second home game, the other was when they scored 41 on Tennessee. With beautiful sunny weather (58 degrees) in Buffalo Sunday, look for an offensive show. Take Pittsburgh/Buffalo OVER the total.