Buffalo Bills vs Philadelphia Eagles Point Spread Picks

First-place Philadelphia has a dangerous offense with QB Jalen Hurts (24 TDs, 6 INTs) and RB Saquon Barkley (1,072 yards). They've won six of nine, including winning their only game as an underdog, 10-7, at the Packers. This is a good match-up for the Eagles, facing a shaky Buffalo run defense that ranks 30th, allowing 144.3 yards rushing per contest. They're home after playing four of the last five on the road, including a comeback win at New England (35-31), where they were gouged for 246 rushing yards. The defense is also 27th on third down (42.94%). Play Philadelphia on the moneyline.

Buffalo has talent all over the field. They may not have an elite overall record but have been in every game. Their five losses have been by six, five, four, six, and two points. The Bills are sixth in the NFL offensively in total yards, seventh in points scored (26.7 per game), and second on third down (48.12%), while the defense is fourth in points given up (17.3 per game) and Top 10 in yards allowed. Buffalo is 28-13 ATS after failing to cover in four of its last five. Philadelphia's defense is 16th in points given up (21.2 per game), 14th in yards allowed, and 27th on third down (43.18%). The Eagles are working on short rest after an emotional 21-17 win at Kansas City in a Super Bowl rematch. With NFL road dogs of 3.5 to 10 points like the Bills that allow 64% completions or higher 36-9 ATS after allowing 5.5 or fewer passing yards per attempt in the last game, back the visitors. Play Buffalo.

Philadelphia looks to redeem itself after getting embarrassed in Dallas while the Bills have a 5-1 record playing to an exceptionally weak schedule. The Eagles covered the number in five of their last six against teams with winning records and other than the Patriots this will arguably be the toughest test for Buffalo so far this season. The Bills were down 14-9 at halftime to the hapless Dolphins last week before rallying with 22 points in the fourth quarter. Josh Allen completed 16-of-26 for 202 yards and ageless Frank Gore rushed for 55 yards on 11 carries. Carson Wentz knows he has to be better than his performance against the Cowboys when he threw for 191 yards with a TD and interception.  It is telling that a 5-1 team is favored by less than a field goal on its home field. The Bills had two forced second-half turnovers and returned an onside kick for a touchdown against Miami. They can't depend on those things to happen to pull out a win this week. Play the Eagles.

The Eagles are patting themselves on the back after an improbable 35-28 win at New England last week. However, they were outgained nearly two-to-one as the offense had just 248 total yards. It was a game the Patriots gave away more than the Eagles won. The Patriots had 427 yards and 28 points, which means Philadelphia is on a 1-3 SU/ATS run allowing 28, 45, 45 and 20 points, with the offense tallying 19, 17 and 14 during a three-game skid. Philadelphia has a losing record at home and is on a 2-5 ATS run here, as well as 2-8 ATS on grass. The Eagles offense will struggle against the talented Buffalo defense with Philly at 6-0 UNDER the total after a straight-up win. Buffalo is on a 3-2 SU, 3-1-1 ATS run with a strong defensive front for Rex Ryan. The Buffalo offense likes to run, a conservative attack that looks to control the clock and keep scoring down. They put up 390 yards on Houston last week, but the UNDER is 36-17 after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game, plus 10-4 UNDER after allowing more than 350 total yards. Buffalo will be able to move the ball on a Philadelphia defense that is #27 in the NFL against the run allowing 124.7 yards per game, plus #25 in points allowed (25.2 per game). When these teams clash the Bills are 4-1 ATS and the dog is 4-1 ATS. Philadelphia is also 5-2 UNDER the total on natural grass, plus 37-16 UNDER after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game, so grab the visitors in a defensive battle. Take Buffalo and the UNDER.