Buffalo Bills vs New York Giants

No one wants a piece of this Giants team right now, which is why we see a sky-high spread over two touchdowns. But, New York is on a 68-46 spread run on the road in the first half of the season, including 40-23 ATS away from home in October games. Buffalo is a huge favorite but in a difficult situational spot. They played in London last week, a 3,459-mile trip, and looked jet-lagged in a 25-20 loss to Jacksonville as a favorite. The Bills are also in a look-ahead spot with New England on deck, a divisional game, and Buffalo is 1-1 in the AFC East. The Bills are 57-89 ATS after covering in two of their last three. And, early season home favorites coming off a loss lose ATS about 60% of the time in the NFL. Hold your nose, back the big dog here and play New York.

Buffalo took advantage of a meltdown by the New York Jets, who blew a 16-0 lead. The Bills stormed back after Jets middle linebacker C.J. Mosley left late in the third quarter with a groin injury. The Jets also missed an extra point and a 45-yard field goal and the Bills escaped with the victory. New York couldn't contain Dak Prescott in its 35-17 loss to the Cowboys although Eli Manning put on one of his best performances in recent seasons as he went 30-of-44 for 306 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions. Saquon Barkley carried 11 times and rushed for 120 yards and will be a more serious threat to the Bills defense than Le'Veon Bell, who hadn't played since 2017. In addition, Barkley was prevented from being on the field much in the first three quarters due to the Cowboys' long drives and that shouldn't be a factor this week. The Giants went OVER by eight points against Dallas and they have gone OVER in five of their last six regular season games and all four preseason games went OVER. Buffalo is 6-2 OVER in Week 2 over the last eight seasons and the Giants have gone OVER their last five games after a loss by at least 14 points. Take the Giants on the moneyline for the upset win as a Max Play and also take the OVER.