Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots Point Spread Picks

Bills vs. Patriots Spread Picks

Get this week's Bills vs. Patriots point spread picks, including expert ATS picks, computer model projections, betting consensus trends, matchup analysis, key wagering angles, and the latest odds insights for the upcoming game between Bills vs. Patriots.

Public Consensus

Who was the public on? 52% of the public bets were on Buffalo Bills on the -2.5 ATS. And, 51% of the bets were on the game to go OVER the total.

Computer Predictions

My computer prediction for this game was that Buffalo would win by a score of 24.9 to 24.9 with Buffalo winning on the moneyline, New England winning on the spread and the game going OVER the total.

Pro Picks

This Pro Pick was released to clients on December 12, 2025 at 11:58AM ET.

NFL

Buffalo at New England

December 14, 2025

1:00 PM Eastern

An AFC East showdown between the two best teams. Buffalo RB James Cook III leads an attack that averages 5.1 yards per carry and 157.8 yards per game, both tops in the NFL. The Bills have averaged 32 points in the last four games. The defense is 10th in yards given up. New England's run defense is banged up with injuries, without DT Milton Williams, while Khyiris Tonga missed the Patriots' most recent game with a chest injury. And the offensive line has dealt with a lot of key injuries down the stretch. Play Buffalo on the moneyline.

Final Score

1

2

3

4

F

Buffalo Bills

0

7

14

14

35

New England Patriots

14

10

0

7

31

Public Consensus

Who was the public on? 55% of the public bets were on Buffalo Bills on the -7.5 ATS. And, 60% of the bets were on the game to go OVER the total.

Computer Predictions

My computer prediction for this game was that Buffalo would win by a score of 30.3 to 18.1 with Buffalo winning on the moneyline and on the spread and the game going UNDER the total.

Pro Picks

This Pro Pick was released to clients on October 02, 2025 at 12:01PM ET.

NFL

New England at Buffalo

October 5, 2025

8:20 PM Eastern

New England's defense has been stout in the last two games. For the season, they rank 16th in yards allowed, third against the run, and 11th in points given up. New coach Mike Vrabel plays a Bill Belichick-style, bend-but-don't-break, predicated on not giving up big plays. Buffalo's talented defense is 11th in yards allowed. The two meetings between these rivals last year had final scores of 24-21 and 23-16. Take New England/Buffalo UNDER the total. 

Final Score

1

2

3

4

F

New England Patriots

3

3

7

10

23

Buffalo Bills

0

3

7

10

20

Public Consensus

Who was the public on? 67% of the public bets were on Buffalo Bills on the -3 ATS. And, 57% of the bets were on the game to go OVER the total.

Computer Predictions

My computer prediction for this game was that Buffalo would win by a score of 25.4 to 15.8 with Buffalo winning on the moneyline and on the spread and the game going OVER the total.

Final Score

1

2

3

4

F

Buffalo Bills

0

10

6

0

16

New England Patriots

7

7

3

6

23

Public Consensus

Who was the public on? 70% of the public bets were on Buffalo Bills on the -14 ATS. And, 62% of the bets were on the game to go OVER the total.

Computer Predictions

My computer prediction for this game was that Buffalo would win by a score of 31.4 to 15.7 with Buffalo winning on the moneyline and on the spread and the game going UNDER the total.

Pro Picks

This Pro Pick was released to clients on December 22, 2024 at 9:45AM ET.

PARLAY

Buffalo (NFL-112) MONEYLINE + Denver (NBA-529) MONEYLINE

December 22, 2024

4:25 PM Eastern

Combine the Bills (-1200) and the Nuggets (-430) into a 2-team parlay at -298 odds.

Final Score

1

2

3

4

F

New England Patriots

7

7

0

7

21

Buffalo Bills

0

7

10

7

24

Public Consensus

Who was the public on? 54% of the public bets were on New England Patriots on the +14.5 ATS. And, 59% of the bets were on the game to go OVER the total.

Computer Predictions

My computer prediction for this game was that Buffalo would win by a score of 26.2 to 14.2 with Buffalo winning on the moneyline, New England winning on the spread and the game going OVER the total.

Pro Picks

This Pro Pick was released to clients on December 29, 2023 at 10:25AM ET.

NFL

New England at Buffalo

December 31, 2023

1:02 PM Eastern

Last place New England has surprised winning two of three. However, the positive vibes end here. The Patriots have holes all over the place. The offense is 28th in total yards, 30th on third down (31.31%), and last in points (14.1 per game). New England's offensive line is poor averaging just 3.9 yards per rush and their two QBs have combined for as many TDs (16) as interceptions. The Patriots are 5-14 ATS as an underdog. After facing the Chiefs, Cowboys, and Chargers (two on the road) and winning all three, the Bills are home trying to clinch a playoff berth. Buffalo is fourth in total yards, sixth in points scored (26.9 per game), and No. 1 on third down (49.21%), while the defense is Top 10 in yards allowed and fourth in points given up (18.4 per game). The Bills are 44-18 ATS after a win by 3 points or less and have beaten New England the last two years on this field, 35-23 and 47-17. Lay the points with Buffalo.

Final Score

1

2

3

4

F

New England Patriots

7

7

0

7

21

Buffalo Bills

13

7

7

0

27