An AFC East showdown between the two best teams. Buffalo RB James Cook III leads an attack that averages 5.1 yards per carry and 157.8 yards per game, both tops in the NFL. The Bills have averaged 32 points in the last four games. The defense is 10th in yards given up. New England's run defense is banged up with injuries, without DT Milton Williams, while Khyiris Tonga missed the Patriots' most recent game with a chest injury. And the offensive line has dealt with a lot of key injuries down the stretch. Play Buffalo on the moneyline.
Previous Matchups & Picks
October 4, 2026 1:00pm ET
@
New England Patriots
#253
Buffalo Bills
#254
Lines & Odds
+7 (-120)
ATS
-7 (+100)
+266
Moneyline
-328
OVER 49.5 (-108)
Total
UNDER 49.5 (-112)
Patriots vs. Bills Spread Picks
Get this week's Patriots vs. Bills point spread picks, including expert ATS picks, computer model projections, betting consensus trends, matchup analysis, key wagering angles, and the latest odds insights for the upcoming game between Patriots vs. Bills.
Public Consensus
Who was the public on? 66% of the public bets were on Buffalo Bills on the -7 ATS. 94% of the public money was on Buffalo Bills to win on the moneyline. And, 54% of the bets were on the game to go OVER the total.
Computer Predictions
My computer prediction for this game was that Buffalo would win by a score of 28.7 to 18.6 with Buffalo winning on the moneyline and on the spread and the game going UNDER the total.
Final Score
1
2
3
4
F
New England Patriots 
7
7
7
8
29
Buffalo Bills
0
17
0
9
26
NFL Pro Pick Results
Here’s how my Pro Picks are performing.
NFLNFL
All Picks last 25.1 years
Wins
Losses
Units
3,242
2,888
+180.80
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Losses
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1,324
1,131
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Free Picks last 16.8 years
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Losses
Units
263
177
+96.22
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All Preseason Picks last 24.0 years
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Losses
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499
429
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All Playoff Picks last 13.1 years
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Losses
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227
177
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2
0
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Losses
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1
0
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Losses
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2
0
+2.68
December 14, 2025 1:00pm ET
@
Buffalo Bills
#463
New England Patriots
#464
Lines & Odds
-2.5 (-110)
ATS
+2.5 (-110)
-140
Moneyline
+119
OVER 49.5 (-110)
Total
UNDER 49.5 (-110)
Public Consensus
Who was the public on? 52% of the public bets were on Buffalo Bills on the -2.5 ATS. And, 51% of the bets were on the game to go OVER the total.
Computer Predictions
My computer prediction for this game was that Buffalo would win by a score of 24.9 to 24.9 with Buffalo winning on the moneyline, New England winning on the spread and the game going OVER the total.
Pro Picks
This Pro Pick was released to clients on December 12, 2025 at 11:58AM ET.
NFL
Buffalo at New England
December 14, 2025
1:00 PM Eastern
Final Score
1
2
3
4
F
Buffalo Bills
0
7
14
14
35
New England Patriots
14
10
0
7
31
October 5, 2025 8:20pm ET
@
New England Patriots
#483
Buffalo Bills
#484
Lines & Odds
+7.5 (-110)
ATS
-7.5 (-110)
+346
Moneyline
-445
OVER 49 (-110)
Total
UNDER 49 (-110)
Public Consensus
Who was the public on? 55% of the public bets were on Buffalo Bills on the -7.5 ATS. And, 60% of the bets were on the game to go OVER the total.
Computer Predictions
My computer prediction for this game was that Buffalo would win by a score of 30.3 to 18.1 with Buffalo winning on the moneyline and on the spread and the game going UNDER the total.
Pro Picks
This Pro Pick was released to clients on October 02, 2025 at 12:01PM ET.
NFL
New England at Buffalo
October 5, 2025
8:20 PM Eastern
New England's defense has been stout in the last two games. For the season, they rank 16th in yards allowed, third against the run, and 11th in points given up. New coach Mike Vrabel plays a Bill Belichick-style, bend-but-don't-break, predicated on not giving up big plays. Buffalo's talented defense is 11th in yards allowed. The two meetings between these rivals last year had final scores of 24-21 and 23-16. Take New England/Buffalo UNDER the total.
Final Score
1
2
3
4
F
New England Patriots
3
3
7
10
23
Buffalo Bills
0
3
7
10
20
January 5, 2025 1:00pm ET
@
Buffalo Bills
#337
New England Patriots
#338
Lines & Odds
-3 (-120)
ATS
+3 (+100)
-176
Moneyline
+150
OVER 36.5 (-110)
Total
UNDER 36.5 (-110)
Public Consensus
Who was the public on? 67% of the public bets were on Buffalo Bills on the -3 ATS. And, 57% of the bets were on the game to go OVER the total.
Computer Predictions
My computer prediction for this game was that Buffalo would win by a score of 25.4 to 15.8 with Buffalo winning on the moneyline and on the spread and the game going OVER the total.
Final Score
1
2
3
4
F
Buffalo Bills
0
10
6
0
16
New England Patriots
7
7
3
6
23
December 22, 2024 4:25pm ET
@
New England Patriots
#111
Buffalo Bills
#112
Lines & Odds
+14 (-110)
ATS
-14 (-110)
+787
Moneyline
-1431
OVER 48 (-110)
Total
UNDER 48 (-110)
Public Consensus
Who was the public on? 70% of the public bets were on Buffalo Bills on the -14 ATS. And, 62% of the bets were on the game to go OVER the total.
Computer Predictions
My computer prediction for this game was that Buffalo would win by a score of 31.4 to 15.7 with Buffalo winning on the moneyline and on the spread and the game going UNDER the total.
Pro Picks
This Pro Pick was released to clients on December 22, 2024 at 9:45AM ET.
PARLAY
Buffalo (NFL-112) MONEYLINE + Denver (NBA-529) MONEYLINE
December 22, 2024
4:25 PM Eastern
Combine the Bills (-1200) and the Nuggets (-430) into a 2-team parlay at -298 odds.
Final Score
1
2
3
4
F
New England Patriots
7
7
0
7
21
Buffalo Bills
0
7
10
7
24
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