Buffalo Bills vs Minnesota Vikings Point Spread Picks

Josh Allen has an elbow issue and his status is unknown at this point. The total has been bet way down, but I think too far. Allen could play, but the bigger issue for Buffalo is they have an injury-riddled defense. Minnesota is 7-1 on the season and has won 6 in a row by averaging 27.2ppg. The Buffalo offense can win the game running as well as passing as the Bills are very above average in their running game and have exceeded 100 yards on the ground every game. Case Keenum is more than adequate to move the ball against a soft Minnesota secondary. He led Minnesota to an 11-3 record by throwing 22 Tds and 7 INTs, and over 3500 yards. This game goes Over the total.

Unbeaten Minnesota is averaging 26.3 points this preseason and their games have averaged a total of 44 points. The quarterback trio of Sean Mannion, Kyle Sloter and Jake Browning has been very good. Mannion has completed 24-of-36 passes (66.7 percent) for 247 yards with two touchdowns and an interception, while Sloter has completed 23-of-27 passes (85.2 percent) for 280 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions. The Vikings starting defense will rest, and in seven drives, the unit gave up no TDs and four field goals over three games. Buffalo is also undefeated with the offense scoring 24, 27 and 24 points. They've beaten three teams by a 25-17 average (42 points). The last two preseasons their Week 4 scores were 28-27 and 27-17 and this shapes up as another offensive show. Play the OVER.

Buffalo is getting raked over the coals in the media, with many proclaiming this the worst team in the NFL. 0-16? Hold on here, it's only Week 3 and this point spread is through the roof. They scored 20 points last week against the Chargers as this young team improved in the second half. Buffalo's pass rush woke up as QB Philip Rivers was hurried significantly more over the final two quarters. Trent Murphy, Lorenzo Alexander and Jerry Hughes all got in the offensive backfield to harass Rivers, with Alexander and Hughes registering sacks. Hughes also had three quarterback hits. The Bills are 53-29 ATS after two or more consecutive spread losses. The secondary is the biggest concern this week, with Vontae Davis' abrupt retirement and Phillip Gaines elbow injury that kept him out of the second half. Buffalo's cornerback contingent is suddenly thin so look for Minnesota to attack them deep downfield. Buffalo is 16-7 OVER the total when following a straight-up loss, plus 11-5 OVER after a spread loss. Minnesota is a huge favorite but hasn't been dominant, off a tie with rival Green Bay and a close win over San Francisco. They have a tough two-game road trip on deck, at the Rams and defending champion Eagles. The Vikings are 95-67 OVER when the total is between 35.5 and 42 points, so back the huge dog in an offensive show. Play Buffalo and the OVER.

Minnesota plays hard for no-nonsense coach Mike Zimmer, even in August. Last August Minnesota went 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS. The previous preseason, they went 4-1 SU/ATS. Minnesota stuffed Pittsburgh in Week 1 2015, 14-3, while allowing 17 points or less in every preseason game. In 2016 they opened with two preseason games on the road and won both, 17-16 and 18-11, the latter at Seattle, a tough place to win even in August. The Vikings were hit hard by injuries on the offensive line last year, so they've bulked up with depth on the O-line and in the backfield for this season to have better balance on offense. As a result, there will be an emphasis on getting the ground game going. The defense is also loaded with talent and depth. Buffalo has a new coaching staff, a new playbook, and too many early injuries. Bills DE Shaq Lawson (groin injury) is ailing, along with RB Jonathan Williams (right leg), and there is uncertainty at left tackle as starting tackle Cordy Glenn may require foot surgery. QB Tyrod Taylor has been inconsistent in camp as he adjusts to playing in Rick Dennison's offense, and the backups are unimpressive with QBs T.J. Yates and fifth-round draft pick Nathan Peterman. Back the deeper, healthier visitors with the coach who gets them to play hard even in preseason. Play Minnesota.

The public is believing in the Bills as they are all over Buffalo here, moving the line. Their win over Chicago in their opener and then 19 point win over Miami in week two drew attention. But, what seems to be missed is the fact that since then, Buffalo is just 1-3 straight-up and ATS. Over that span theyh are averaging just 16.5 points per game. Their only win was against a hobbled Detroit team two weeks ago. Teddy Bridgewater had a successful debut as Vikings quarterback, but last week was not the same. The rookie signal caller was sacked eight times, and under pressure all game, which led to three INTs. But, that was against the league's #1 defense. While Buffalo has been better than average on the defensive side, I look for Minnesota to make some adjustments to their pass protection and find more success. The knee-jerk reaction to Minnesota's struggles last week was to inflate the line, so I think there is value on Minnesota. Kyle Orton was OK last week, but he was responsible for a pair of turnovers as he has a habit of holding onto the ball too long. The Vikings have a good defense, and they are able to get pressure, and that is not a good thing with Orton in the pocket. The Bills have to be disappointed as they had the Pat's game last week circled as a measuring stick game, and they were beaten badly. It will be tough for them to manifest full energy in an inter-conference game vs. a team with a bad record, that isn't as bad as they were made to look a week ago. Because of the failure of Minnesota and Teddy Bridgewater last week vs. an elite defense, bettors are lining up heavily on the Bills. Don't be surprised if the Vikings surprise this week. The Bills have folded in their last eight after suffering a double-digit loss at home where they have taken the donut at 0-8 ATS. Grab the points and play on Minnesota.