Buffalo Bills vs Los Angeles Rams Point Spread Picks

The Rams lead the NFL with 427.3 yards per game and rank 23rd in scoring at 21.3 points per game. Two turnovers in each of their four games account for much of that gap, along with eight touchdowns on 15 red-zone trips. I trust the yardage more than the giveaways, and Buffalo’s defense is a good place for it to show. The Bills allow 372.3 yards and 26.8 points a game, and New England gained 405 yards in a 29-26 win over Buffalo last week. Buffalo scores 31.8 a game, second in the league. The Rams’ defense has been the steadier unit lately, allowing 182, 257, and 172 yards over its last three games while those opponents converted 10 of 39 third downs. I laid the points with Los Angeles at home against the Giants on September 21, and it won 28-6. The home team is the top-yardage favorite against that defense. Los Angeles is the right side on the spread tonight.

Buffalo is battling Kansas City for the top spot in the AFC. The offense is second in scoring in the NFL (29.6 points per game), while the defense is 11th in yards allowed, sixth in points given up, and eighth in the red zone. They've won seven in a row, coming off significant victories over Kansas City (30-21) and San Francisco (35-10). The Bills have the league's second-best scoring differential (+131), while Los Angeles is at minus-36. The Rams' defense is 25th in yards surrendered, 28th versus the run, and 19th on third down (39.73%). They stepped up two weeks ago to face a top team....and flopped in a 37-20 loss at home to Philadelphia. Play Buffalo. 

Buffalo has had an easy start to the season topping the rebuilding Jets and Dolphins, but now they step up to face a potent, balanced, veteran team. Buffalo's defense is #19 in passing yards surrendered and will get a tough test against a visiting Los Angeles squad that is strong on both sides of the line. The Rams are fifth in the NFL offensively in total yards, third in rushing (172 yards per game) and top ten in points (28.5 ppg), while the defense is fourth in points allowed (18 ppg). The Rams are on a 9-2 spread run on the road, plus 11-2 ATS in the first half of the season under Sean McVay. They come off a 37-19 win at Philadelphia and are 21-8 ATS on the road after scoring 35-plus points. And NFL favorites like Buffalo that averaged 5.4 or more yards play the previous season are 23-51 ATS after getting 400-plus total yards in the last game. Take Los Angeles.

The Bills are riding high under vocal Rex Ryan, winning two in a row, allowing 18 and 0 points in the process. They were an underdog in each game, but beat the Cardinals (33-18) and Patriots (16-0), the latter on the road. Are the Rams in the same league as those two teams? No way! LA has had one breakout game on offense, putting up 37 vs. Tampa Bay. But in their other three games they averaged just 8.7 points per game. You need to be able to stop the run if you want to contain the conservative Rams' offense and the Bills are #13 against the run. And they will be even better as Buffalo DT Marcell Dareus returned to practice Wednesday following a four-game suspension and will play. Mobile QB Tyrod Taylor (four TDs, two picks) has played well and has 140 yards rushing, 6.7 yards per carry. As mentioned, the Bills face a terrible Los Angeles offense that is dead last in the NFL in yards and #30 in points at 15.8 points per game. They are a first-place fluke with QB Case Keenum (four TDs, three INTs) below average as defenses focus on RB Todd Gurley, who is averaging just 2.6 ypc. The Rams are a favorite? Since when? Oh, since Week 1 when they were favored at San Francisco -- and lost 28-0. Take Buffalo on the moneyline.