Buffalo Bills vs Los Angeles Chargers Point Spread Picks

Buffalo has talent everywhere despite just an 8-6 record. They've been showcasing that talent of late on a 3-1 SU/ATS off a 31-10 rout of Dallas. The offense is fourth in the NFL in total yards (376.9 per game), sixth in points (27.1 per game), and No. 1 on third down (49.16%). The defense is 12th in yards allowed and fourth in points surrendered (18.1 per game). The Chargers are on a 1-5 SU/ATS slide. Los Angeles is 17th in points scored and 14th on third down (40.41%), while the defense is fourth-worst in yards given up along with the fifth-most points allowed (24.5 per contest). The Chargers come off a 63-21 loss to Las Vegas and are 6-16 ATS at home off a double-digit defeat to a division rival, plus 6-19 ATS at home after allowing 35+ points. They're also 15-30 ATS at home after a double-digit loss, so back the talented visitors. Play Buffalo.

Los Angeles finally found a way to win, although it was against the ghastly New York Jets on Sunday, but the Chargers still are 3-7 and going nowhere while the Bills have had a week to recover from their heartbreaking loss on a Hail Mary against Arizona. Buffalo had won its three previous games, and the Bills lead the AFC East with a 7-3 record, one game ahead of Miami. Josh Allen went 32 of 49 for 284 yards with two touchdowns and two picks against the Cardinals. Rookie Justin Herbert did have a good game against the Jets completing 37 of 49 for 366 yards and three touchdowns. The Chargers have allowed an average of 30.9 points their last seven games, and the Bills are averaging 27.2 points. Buffalo is #4 in the NFL in passing yardage per game, and Allen has compiled 2,871 yards and 21 touchdowns with only seven interceptions and a 68.4 percent completion rate. Buffalo is 4-1 at home, and the Chargers are 1-4 on the road. Play the Bills on the moneyline.

The LA Chargers seem like a team that is always right there, but something always goes wrong for them. They opened at home vs. the Kansas City Chiefs, a team breaking in an inexperienced QB, and allowed 38 points. The offense gave a bunch away, and while the Chargers ran 19 more plays, and amassed 541 total yards, to the Chief's 362, they ended up on the short end of a 38-28 score. The Chargers were -2 in turnovers, something that seems to continually plague this team. The Chargers are now 1-13 SU in their last 14 losing the turnover battle. Buffalo could not get anything going in a start to finish romp on the road at Baltimore. They gave up 47 points, and looked horrible, but remember this is the NFL and last week is last week. It is tough to pull the trigger on a team that looked so bad a week ago, but a team that lost their last game by 35 points or more is 83-61-9 ATS in their next game. A team that lost by 44 or more is 15-7-1 ATS including 15-4-1 ATS if it was a road loss. I think Nathan Peterman will be more comfortable at home this week against a Chargers defense that was not very good last week. Philip Rivers has led his Chargers to 33.2 points per game against Buffalo his last six starts against them. Buffalo has eight straight OVERS at home when following an OVER in their last game. September road teams off an upset loss as a home favorite are 40-15 to the OVER the last 10 years. Take Buffalo and the OVER.

Buffalo is in the role of underdog but has a winning record. The Bills come off a blowout loss to the Saints but are 9-2-1 ATS after getting fewer than 250 total yards in their previous game. They are a run-oriented, ball-control offense anchored by tailback LeSean McCoy. They will be able to run the pigskin against a Chargers' defense that has allowed the most rushing yards per game (117.7) and third-most yards per carry (4.69) to tailbacks this season. The L.A. Chargers are a mess, scoring 30 total points the last two games. Their new stadium is a joke and the team is on a 7-19 spread run at home. QB Philip Rivers is in concussion protocol and may not play, with backup Kellen Clemens taking reps this week. No matter who starts there is no ground game at #26 in rushing yards, and #23 in points scored (18.6 points per game). The Chargers are also 95-68 UNDER the total against winning teams. Bad teams with winning percentages between 25-40% in the role of favorite after covering the spread in two out of their last three games are 15-44 ATS when facing a winning team. Back the visitors in a defensive duel. Play Buffalo as my NFL November Game of the Month and also play the UNDER.