Buffalo Bills vs Las Vegas Raiders Point Spread Picks

The Buffalo Bills had a good measuring stick game to open the season vs. the NY Jets. It was supposed to be Aaron Rodger's day, turned out to be the Jet's biggest nightmare. Rodgers left the game after just four plays with a torn Achilles. The Jets poured it on Josh Allen as they sacked him five times, and picked him off three times. The game almost looked like the Bills lost all their energy when Rodgers went down thinking they could coast to victory. I think The Bills are going to flex some defensive muscle here and take over the mental advantage early. The Jimmy Garappolo era is underway in Las Vegas. Garappolo had a serviceable day, outside of one pick, but the Raider's offense in general was lethargic. I think this becomes a tough and physical game, played at a slow pace. Make the play UNDER the total.

Oakland is one of the most talented offensive teams in the league, getting David Carr healthy last week. They put up 31 points on a strong Kansas City defense in a victory as a +3 dog. Carr threw for 417 yards and three touchdowns, while WR Amari Cooper had an 11-catch performance for 210 yards and two TDs. They are 2-1 SU/ATS as a dog this season and 9-3 ATS after allowing more than 350 total yards the last game. They face a Buffalo defense that is regressing, allowing 20 and 27 points the last two games -- the most points they've allowed all season. Oakland is 19-7-1 OVER the total after a victory, plus 36-14-2 OVER following a spread cover. Buffalo is a one-dimensional offense behind mobile quarterback Tyrod Taylor and RB LeSean McCoy is averaging only 3.4 yards per carry. Buffalo is 2-11 ATS at home after allowing 75 or fewer rushing yards in two straight games. The Bills' defense is good against the run but #26 against the pass and will struggle against this high-octane Oakland attack. Buffalo is also 13-4 OVER the total as a favorite, so back the visitors in an offensive show. Play Oakland and the OVER the total.

Buffalo won its second straight game, 28-21, over Jacksonville as Tyrod Taylor recovered from a shaky first half and completed 12 of 18 passes for 166 yards and a touchdown with no interceptions. LeSean McCoy ran for 103 yards on 5.4 yards per carry, which included a 75-yard touchdown on the first play of the second half. Sammy Watkins returned after missing eight games due to a broken foot and caught three passes for 80 yards, including a 62-yard gain. The Buffalo defense stepped up and held Blake Bortles to only 126 passing yards. The Bills are tied at #9 in the NFL allowing 21.5 points per game, and they are #8 in pass defense (227.7 yards per game). Oakland blew a lead and then came back to beat Carolina on Sunday, however, the Raiders are 2-8 ATS their last 10 home games, including 1-4 this season. Derek Carr threw for 315 yards with two touchdowns and an interception against the Panthers, but the Raiders managed only 55 yards on the ground on 30 carries. Carr is probable for this game with a dislocated pinky finger. Play the Bills and the UNDER.

Last place Oakland is 2-2 straight-up the last four games, and are playing hard for likable players-coach Tony Sporano. They are 2-0 SU/ATS their last two home games and this is the home finale for 2014. The Raiders are 4-1 ATS in their last five following a loss as the lines get shaded on this disliked team. They face a Buffalo team that is just 3-3 on the road and 3,000 miles from home while crossing three time zones. Buffalo is a big road favorite, but is not a great offensive team at #19 in passing and #24 in rushing. They have been poor the last two road games, losing 24-17 at Denver and 22-9 at Miami. They come off an emotional win at home over Green Bay 21-13, but the Bills are 3-10 ATS after allowing fewer than 15 points in their previous game. Even in the win, QB Kyle Orton was just 14-of-27 for 158 yards and an INT while being sacked three times. Buffalo continues to be vulnerable on the ground, giving up 5.0 yards per carry and 10 TDs over their last eight. Buffalo has lost nine of 10 on the road against the Raiders since its last victory in Oakland on Nov. 24, 1966. The Bills are 1-5 ATS in their last six meetings vs. Oakland, so look for an inspired effort by the home team. Take the Raiders.