Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs Point Spread Picks

This weekend's forecast in Kansas City calls for 33 degrees, sunny, and light wind, which is good news for these elite quarterbacks and their potent offensive attacks. Buffalo QB Josh Allen had 28 TDs and six interceptions during the regular season, then threw for 399 yards, two touchdowns, and no picks in back-to-back playoff wins over Denver and Baltimore. The balanced attack is 10th in total yards, ninth in rushing, and second in points (30.9 per game). The defense is 28th on third down (44.09%), 19th in the red zone, and 17th in total yards allowed. The Bills are on a 10-4 run OVER the total, including a 30-21 victory over the Chiefs in November with a total of 47. Counting the playoffs, Kansas City star QB Patrick Mahomes has 27 TDs and 11 picks. The Chiefs are 29th defensively in the NFL on third down (44.40%). These teams met in the playoffs last January in a 27-24 final that sailed OVER. With another high-scoring affair likely, take Buffalo/Kansas City OVER the total. 

The Kansas City Chiefs have been considered a big offensive team since Mahomes took over at QB. That is very true, but the Chiefs are constructed differently now. The Chiefs rank number 7th in defensive yards per play. They have allowed 20 or fewer points in six of their last seven games. The offense no longer has the complete speed they had a few years back. Through nine games this season, the Chiefs have not scored more than 30 points in a game. The Bills offense has taken off, as they have scored 30 or more points in four consecutive games. Those numbers are rarely sustainable, especially with an opponent who is very competent on the defensive side of the ball. A team that has scored 30 or more points in four consecutive games plays under 55% of the time. I like UNDER the total in this one.

Buffalo has won two of the past three meetings at Kansas City and the loss was the Chiefs' miraculous comeback in the final seconds in the 2021-22 playoffs. The Bills come off a bye week after losing 37-34 to Philadelphia while the Chiefs come off a 27-19 home loss to Green Bay on Sunday night when Jordan Love outplayed Pat Mahomes by throwing for 267 yards and three TDs. The Chiefs have lost three of their past five games while averaging only 19.4 points and they are 6-2 UNDER their past eight games. Buffalo has stayed UNDER six of eight overall and four in a row following a loss. Kansas City is 6-1 UNDER after an ATS loss and 5-1 UNDER after yielding more than 350 total yards its previous game. The Bills are 22-7 ATS their past 29 games after totaling more than 150 yards rushing their previous game. Buffalo is 11-0-1 ATS as a conference road underdog of more than one point against a team that is coming off a straight-up favorite loss. The Bills have gone UNDER 10 of 13 road games and the Chiefs are 14-3 UNDER at home. Buffalo has had plenty of time to prepare for this matchup. Take the Bills and the UNDER.