Buffalo Bills vs Jacksonville Jaguars Point Spread Picks

Buffalo won five of its last six games, and the lone loss was by one point to Philadelphia. The Bills averaged 31.6 points in the five victories, and they outgained the Jets 470-122 with Josh Allen watching from the sidelines. Mitchell Trubisky completed 22 of 29 for 259 yards and four TDs against the hapless Jets. Buffalo has won four of six road games and five straight against AFC opponents. Jacksonville is 6-14 straight up in its past 20 games as an underdog. The Jaguars got a win at Denver, but otherwise, they have mostly taken advantage of a soft schedule, although Liam Coen deserves to be a Coach of the Year candidate for the job he has done with Trevor Lawrence. Jacksonville is 4-0 UNDER in its past four home games against teams with winning road records. Buffalo's defense is peaking at the right time as the Bills have allowed just 13.7 points per game in their past three games. The Bills' great offensive linemen can hold their own against the Jacksonville defense, and obviously, they, along with Josh Allen, have been battle-tested in the postseason. Take the Bills on the moneyline and the UNDER. 

This will be Jacksonville's second consecutive game in London after defeating Atlanta 23-7 in Week 4 and bouncing back from a poor performance the week before when the Jaguars lost 37-17 to Houston. Trevor Lawrence threw for 207 yards on 23 of 30 with no interceptions and Darious Williams returned an interception 61 yards for a score for the Jaguars, who beat the Bills 9-6 in the last meeting in 2021. Jacksonville is 8-3 ATS its past 11 games, 6-0-1 ATS against teams with winning records and 3-0-1 ATS as an underdog of 3.5-10.0 points. Buffalo is just 1-4 ATS its past five games after totaling more than 350 yards its previous game and they are in letdown mode after their big game against Miami. Also, the Bills are 1-5 ATS their past six as favorites of more than three points versus a team coming off a double-digit win. Buffalo cornerback Tre'Davious White suffered an Achilles injury and is out for the year. The Dolphins did accumulate 393 yards of offense against the Bills on Sunday, but were stymied by lack of execution on third and fourth down conversions. Jacksonville has covered six of eight following a win and five of six as an underdog. Take the Jaguars.

Buffalo is a cold-weather team heading to the warm, humid Florida climate. They also have a division game on deck and are banged up on the offensive line. Guard Jon Feliciano (calf strain) is questionable along with left tackle Spencer Brown (back injury), who didn't play last week. This is their third road game in four contests, and they're a huge favorite. NFL road favorites that are outscoring opponents by 10+ on the season are 19-47 ATS after a win by 10+ points. Jacksonville prefers to run the football under first-year coach Urban Meyer, and the team gets No. 1 RB James Robinson back after he missed most of last week's game. Jacksonville is playing hard for this coaching staff, losing 24-21 at Cincinnati as a +7 dog, losing two home games by 10 and 12 points, along with an upset of Miami, 23-20. With the Bills 15-29 ATS off an AFC East win by 10+ points, plus 15-31 ATS off a home win against a division rival, back the huge home dog. Play Jacksonville.

Here's a game even Jacksonville can't blow. The Jaguars dominated the Steelers for 3+ quarters last week, then collapsed again. But this team is loaded with talent on defense, one of the most dominating units in the NFL. Jacksonville is fourth in yards allowed, third against the pass, and ninth in points surrendered (21.9 pg). The Jaguars are 8-2-2 ATS after allowing 250+ yards passing in their previous game. They won't allow that to this one-dimensional and truly awful Buffalo offense, ranking #31 in yards, and last in passing and points (13.7 pg). And the defense is #19 in points allowed (25.1 pg). Buffalo has been outscored by -114 points, most in the league. Five quarterbacks have combined for five TDs to 16 picks! The Bills are 10-21 ATS after allowing fewer than 15 points in their previous game. It's hard to remember that Buffalo made the playoffs last season, losing 10-3 to this Jaguars team when the Bills actually had a semi-respectable QB (Tyrod Taylor). But an offseason fire sale has made them the NFL laughingstock of 2018 and the visitors will easily break their skid. Play Jacksonville.