Buffalo Bills vs Denver Broncos Point Spread Picks

The fact that a No.1 seed did not open as a favorite in the divisional playoffs for the first time in nine years should tell us something about this matchup. Denver has been similar to the Chicago Bears this season, as the Broncos have been pulling off wins coming from behind and/or in the last seconds of games. Buffalo appears to be peaking at the right time with six wins in seven games after knocking off Jacksonville 27-24. Josh Allen came through again, completing 28 of 35 for 273 yards with no interceptions. Allen found Brandin Cooks for 36 yards and then capped the go-ahead drive with a 1-yard TD run. The Bills annihilated the Broncos 31-7 in last year's playoffs, although that was in Buffalo. The Bills are 8-1 ATS in their past nine meetings and have covered four of their past five January games. Denver is 2-4 ATS in its past six games and 1-7 ATS in its past eight Saturday games. Buffalo is one of the few teams that can penetrate Denver's #2-rated rushing defense, as the Bills lead the NFL with 159.6 yards rushing per game. The Broncos are 0-4-1 ATS in their past five divisional playoff games. Take the Bills. 

Denver is an excellent team with a great coach and is undervalued in this playoff game. Coach Sean Payton liked QB Bo Nix (29 TDs, 12 INTs) back in August and was right, as the kid never played like a rookie. He has more TD passes than sacks (24). The offense is 10th in points (25 per game), the defense is third in points given up, 11th on third down, third in the red zone, and seventh in yards allowed. The Broncos are on an 11-4 ATS run. Buffalo relies on QB Josh Allen to do it all, and he often does, but this Denver defense matches up well with a great pass rush, leading the NFL with 63 sacks. Buffalo's defense is 29th on third down (43.78%), 16th in the red zone, and 17th in yards allowed. Play Denver. 

Denver had an impressive start to Nathaniel Hackett's coaching career defeating Dallas 17-7 with Josh Johnson completing 16 of 23 for 172 yards and two touchdowns for the Broncos, who led 17-0 at halftime and didn't score again, the game went UNDER by 9.5 points. Brett Rypien went 8-for-18 for 113 yards, but the Broncos managed only 39 rushing yards on 22 carries. Buffalo won its ninth preseason game in a row 27-24 over the Colts while scoring on three straight possessions in the final 8:10. Matt Barkley was 18 of 24 passing for 224 yards for Buffalo. The Bills are laying more points than usual for a preseason game due to their recent record and Denver wants to instill a winning attitude under Hackett. The Broncos got good performances from all their receivers last week even with Russell Wilson not playing and the defense kept the Cowboys out of the end zone until 4:56 left in the game. The Broncos have gone UNDER eight of their past nine preseason games and allowed an average of just seven points in 2021. Buffalo is 1-4 ATS its past five preseason games versus AFC West teams. Play the Broncos and the UNDER.