Buffalo Bills vs Dallas Cowboys Point Spread Picks

A pair of strong defensive teams meet in this one, but only one has an offense. Buffalo is all defense, as QB Josh Allen (15 TDs, eight picks) leads a run-oriented offense that is #18 in total yards, #23 in passing, and #20 in points scored. The Bills have won five of six but all the wins were against bad teams (Redskins, Browns, Broncos, and twice versus the Dolphins). The Bills have only played a couple of good teams, once against the Eagles, losing 31-13 at home. In the other good one, Buffalo lost at home to the Patriots while scoring just 10 points. Now they head to first-place Dallas on a short week. The Cowboys are No. 1 in the NFL in total yards and passing, eighth in rushing, while the defense is sixth in yards, and seventh in points allowed (19.1 pg). Dallas is 10-5 straight-up the past season and a half vs. good offensive teams like Buffalo that average 350+ yards per game. Under Jason Garrett, the Boys are 19-11 straight-up when following a road loss. The wagering value is on the home team to win the game. Play Dallas on the moneyline.

There were high hopes for the Buffalo Bills and Dallas Cowboys entering the season, but neither are going to be in the playoffs. The Bills had the promise of advancement on both sides of the ball, but in the end the expected strong defense never materialized. Buffalo has allowed 24 points per game on the season, and may be the biggest single factor as to why they will be packing things up after week 17. Over the past five games the defense has allowed at least 20 points to every opponent. Dallas lost Tony Romo early, and that pretty much sealed their fate. The offense has sputtered, but I think they get some help from a disinterested Buffalo defense that struggled when it mattered, and won't mater anymore as the season is lost. Dallas has had solid work for the most part from their defense, which has held four of the last six opponents to 19 or fewer points. Dallas is 12-5 ATS after allowing more than 350 yards in their previous game, and have been 11-5 ATS in their last 16 on the road. Play on Dallas.

Often times you see teams in the NFL that aren't as good as they are supposed to be that are facing a team that is better than they were supposed to be. When that happens, it creates a reputation line. Dallas finds themselves in that position vs. Buffalo. The Cowboys were just 6-10 a year ago and were supposed to rebound this season, but at .500 for the season they have been disappointing. Buffalo, on the otherhand, has become a legitimate 5-3 on the season behind a quickly-maturing QB in Ryan Fitzpatrick, who has been every bit the equal to Tony Romo as their QB ratings are dead even on the season. The Cowboys are mediocre against the pass, and at the same time have faltered against the run since losing LB Sean Lee to injury. Buffalo has not been as good defensively since nose tackle Kyle Williams went down with an injury, so I think the offenses are going to score a lot here. The Dallas defense has only looked good when facing the three losing teams on their schedule who have a combined record of 6-18. The Cowboys allowed just 12 points per game in those three contests, but it has been a different matter altogether against winning teams, where the five game average is just shy of 28 points per. The Bills have faced a tough schedule as Dallas will be the seventh team with a winning record they have faced this season. They too have allowed just about 28 ppg in those six contests, so points are going to be scored here. The Bills are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine as a road dog - clearly an under the radar team, and these teams are even with both missing key defenders. The difference is that Buffalo has a better record and has played a tougher schedule, so this line should really be about 3. The Cowboys have gone OVER the total in 10 of their last 13 at home. Buffalo has put up 20 points in all but one game this season and 30+ in three games. Against good offenses (San Francisco, Detroit, New England, Philadelphia), Dallas has surrendered 28 per game. Take the Bills and the OVER.

Is Dallas 10 points better than Buffalo? Absolutely. Dallas is a great team this year. Does that mean they will win by more than 10 points on the road tonight? We don't think so. The last time Buffalo hosted a Monday Night Football game was on September 26th, 1994. It has been a bit over 13 years and many of the players will have their first chance to play in the spotlight at home on Monday night. Buffalo has been plagued by injury so far but they have been competitive in every single game played in Buffalo now this season. The same can be said dating back to last season as they kept things close in their last five home games last season. The Bills are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games. This line is inflated due to the Cowboys success early on and the fact that they are a public team, playing on Monday night. Both of the other "great" 2007 teams covered big spreads yesterday (NE and Indy), giving the public more confidence to back the Cowboys here. To put this line into context, last season the Bills were just a 6-point home dog vs. a San Diego team that was rolling through everyone. And they gave up just 5.5 at home to New England and only 9.5 on the road to the Bears. History tells us that laying 10 on the road is a bad wager, as the success rate is very low. We know Dallas can win by double-digits so why should we believe they won't? This is a tough emotional spot for Dallas as they square off vs New England next week. We saw New England play with much less energy yesterday than any game this season. Even with the luxury of being at home, they didn't maintain a focus throughout their game with Cleveland. They ended up winning by 17, but without a last minute INT defensive touchdown, they would not have. We would really be surprised if Dallas brings their "A" game for four quaters to Buffalo tonight. They, like New England, could start out strong. But if they build a lead, their minds will be shifting towards the big game next week. Buffalo should play hard for 60 minutes. We would be equally surprised if Buffalo does not bring their top game here. What better way to get back on track after an 0-3 start than to upset the Cowboys for their second straight win? Trent Edwards was cool and poised last week vs. the Jets and looks like an upgrade to the Buffalo offense. Dallas is just 4-14 ATS in their last 18 road games as a 7.5 to 10 point favorite and 2-12 ATS coming off a win by 28+ points. And, Buffalo head coach Dick Jauron is 12-1 ATS in non-conference home games in his coaching career. We like the Bills to hang tough in this one, and come in the pointspread winner. This game is +10 at some books, 10.5 at others and already at +11 at Bodog. By game time, with the public money rolling in on Dallas (70% on the Boys), it could be 11 everywhere.