Buffalo Bills vs Cincinnati Bengals Point Spread Picks

Cincinnati has lost eight of 10 and is 2-4 on the road. It's their second straight road game, after a win at Baltimore, 32-14. The defense is last in the league in yards surrendered (410 per game) and in points allowed (31.2). Buffalo's defense is eighth in yards given up, while the offense is second in yards (381 per game) and fifth in points (28.1 per game). The Bills have won their last two home games, scoring 44 and 28 points. They're on a 27-4 straight-up run in the regular season at home, with the wagering value on the home team to win the game. Play Buffalo on the moneyline. 

For the second straight year, I have put money on the Bills in the offseason to win it all. And for the second straight year, on paper they are the best team. Part of me wants them to win it all for this reason, but I gotta jump ship this week on the Bills. The only thing that saved Buffalo last week was the inexperience of the Dolphins, who nearly defeated the Bills with a third-string quarterback on the road, and with Miami missing numerous offensive starters. The Bills have won eight straight, but five were against teams that finished below .500 and two were against the Dolphins. Cincinnati has won nine in a row, including completing the tough task of beating Baltimore two straight weeks and victories over Pittsburgh, Kansas City, and Tampa Bay. The Bengals are on a current 7-1-1 ATS run and four of their past seven have gone UNDER as they have allowed an average of just 17.7 points in that span. Josh Allen had three more turnovers against Miami and was sacked seven times, and he tied for third-most in the league with 14 interceptions this season. Joe Burrow was 23 of 32 for 209 yards with no picks against the Ravens, and Cincinnati won despite being outgained 364-234. The Bengals have allowed only 16.8 points per game their past five contests. The Bengals are 36-17 ATS in their past 53 road games and 12-3-1 ATS overall versus teams with winning records and 16-4-1 ATS overall following a win. Buffalo has covered just two of seven home games. The UNDER is 11-3 in Cincinnati's past 14 January games and they are 8-1 UNDER overall in the playoffs. Also, Cincy is 12-3-1 UNDER against the AFC. And, since last season, they are 15-3 straight-up vs. winning teams. Burrow is 11-1 straight-up this season vs. defenses like Buffalo's that allow over 60% completions. They are also 10-6 straight-up as a dog in the Burrow era. And get this: Under Sean McDermott, Buffalo has fallen apart in the late season vs. great teams going 1-8 straight-up in the second-half of the season vs. teams at .750 or better. Take the Bengals ATS as a Max Play, back them also on the moneyline, and play this game to stay UNDER.

Both have been UNDER teams this season as Buffalo is 10-5 UNDER and Cincinnati is 9-5-1 UNDER, including four of the past five games. The Bengals allow 20.4 points per game compared to just 17.5 for the Bills. The focus is on the two quarterbacks, Joe Burrow and Josh Allen, but the defenses are underrated as Buffalo is #5 in the NFL in total yards allowed and second in scoring defense. The Bengals are #15 in yards allowed and #7 in scoring defense. Buffalo has gone UNDER seven of eight road games and eight of 10 overall following a win. Cincinnati is 11-1 UNDER in January games and 13-3-1 UNDER overall its past 17 games against AFC teams. In addition, the Bengals have stayed UNDER seven straight versus teams with winning records. The Buffalo defense has nine sacks over the past four games even with Von Miller out for the year and a total of 39 on the season and it will try to get to Burrow quickly to prevent his quick release. Take the UNDER.

Cincinnati may be winless but is playing fairly well. The offense is #11 in total yards, and second in passing with 343 yards per game behind QB Andy Dalton (four TDs, one pick). In their only road game, they rolled up 429 yards and 22 first downs at Seattle in a 21-20 loss as a +9.5 underdog. Dalton was outstanding with 418 yards, two touchdowns and no picks. The Bengals are 21-9-2 ATS in September, plus 8-3 ATS on the road against a team with a winning home record. They are a dog to a run-oriented Buffalo squad that is rebuilding. The Bills are unbeaten but won just six games last season and have had a cupcake schedule, topping the Giants and Jets - the latter by one point. Young QB Josh Allen has two TDs, and two picks. The underdog has covered six of the last eight meetings between these teams and this shapes up as a close one, so back the dog with the superior quarterback. Play Cincinnati.