Buffalo Bills vs Chicago Bears Point Spread Picks

Buffalo coach Sean McDermott has a winning preseason record, including 5-2 straight-up in Week 2. The Bills are a deep, talented team that has been to the playoffs for six straight years. A year ago, the Bills showed nothing in the opener, but won at Pittsburgh in Week 2, 9-3, in their only road exhibition contest as a +2.5 underdog. They're 5-1 straight-up in their last six Week 2 August games, beating Denver (42-15), winning at Chicago (41-15), winning at Carolina (27-14), and at Cleveland (19-17). Chicago has a new coach and playbook under first-year coach Ben Johnson. They come off a 24-24 tie at home against Miami, allowing five sacks. The ground game had just 90 yards on 3.8 yards per carry. Play Buffalo on the moneyline. 

Chicago won a rain-shortened Hall of Fame game 21-17 over Houston with Brett Rypien completing 11 of 15 passing for 166 yards and three TDs. The Bears lost two of three preseason games in 2023. Buffalo coach Sean McDermott is 14-7 straight up and 13-8 ATS in preseason, and he's played UNDER in three of his past five vs. the NFC. Josh Allen's backups are Mitch Trubisky and Shane Buechele and it will be Trubisky's second stint with the Bills as he backed up Allen in 2021 after four years with Chicago. Buechele signed with the practice squad in 2023, but didn't get into a game. No. 1 draft pick Caleb Williams did not play last week and it is questionable whether he he'll see action against the Bills as Chicago has a competition for the No. 2 quarterback. Rypien's performance against the Texans may have put him in front of Tyson Bagent, who started four games last season. In a battle of backup quarterbacks, take the UNDER.

It's going to be 11 degrees on Saturday in windy Chicago! Buffalo can run the football in these conditions, while the defense is Top 10 in yards allowed, plus second in points given up (17.9 ppg). The Bills are 19-10 UNDER the total as a favorite. Chicago doesn't have much offensive punch scoring 10, 19, and 20 points in the last three games. The offense is 22nd in total yards, including dead-last in passing. The Bears are 66-43 UNDER the total as a home underdog, plus 48-29 UNDER versus teams that outscore their opponents by 6+ points per game. Look for a lot more frozen field goals and punts than TDs. Play Buffalo/Chicago UNDER the total.