Baltimore Ravens vs Seattle Seahawks Point Spread Picks

This is a long road trip for the Ravens, 3,000 miles to the Northwest. Baltimore has been living on the edge at 2-2 over the last four games. They lost to the Chiefs (33-28) and Browns (40-25) before squeezing out wins the last two games over the Steelers (26-23 in OT) and Bengals (23-17). The pass defense has been poor, allowing 269.5 yards per game, good for #24 in the league. The Ravens are on a 7-19 spread run on field-turf, plus 2-6 ATS against winning teams and 7-23-1 ATS in October contests. Seattle is home, well-coached and playing great with only one loss. QB Russell Wilson (14 TDs, no picks) is having an MVP season as the Seattle offense is fifth in the league in total yards (399 per game). The Seahawks match up well and are 27-11-3 ATS after getting more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Play Seattle.

The Baltimore Ravens team has been torn apart by retirements on defense, and injuries on offense. Steve Smith, Joe Flacoo, and Justin Forsett are all on IR already, and back up QB Matt Schaub suffered a concussion last week. Schaub has apparently passed concussion protocols already and is the likely starter Sunday. This is the type of game that gives you that ugly feeling in your stomach of backing a team that is down so many players. The situation is especially troubling when the opponent is a Super Bowl team that just went to Minnesota and destroyed them. That being said, this team plays better than any other team at home in terms of being competitive. Try this amazing stat: The Ravens have lost at home by more than 10 points just twice since the start of the 2008 season! They have lost at home by more than 10 points just 12 times since 1989 - by far the fewest of any other NFL team. The line has gotten out of hand here, so play on Baltimore.

The Seahawks have been one of the ugliest road teams in the NFL in recent years, going 3-13 over their last 16 roadies. They have lost most of those by 17 or more points. So when they get home they are often undervalued, and present a good option to back. While the road has not been kind, the Seahawks are more than adequate at home at 7-5 in their last 12 games and have been outscored by just 1 point per game in the stretch over the last two years. Over the past couple of seasons, the Seahawks are 6-0 ATS at home following back-to-back losses. This is a serious overlay. The Ravens are still living large in the public's eyes after their first four wins on the season came by a combined 90 points. That team has left the building and has been replaced by one that three weeks ago lost at Jacksonville outright as a 10 point favorite. In that game, Flacco and company didn't generate a first down until midway through the third quarter. The aforementioned 90-point margin in the first four wins has been replaced by 3-point margins in the last three. This hasn't been a good spot for the Ravens who are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 as a road favorite of 3.5-10, and they are also off a physical and emotional game vs. Pittsburgh. How can they be up for this game? Back Seattle in this one.