Baltimore Ravens vs Pittsburgh Steelers Point Spread Picks

Here they go again, with the AFC North championship on the line. The winner nabs the No. 4 seed in the AFC playoffs. After a 1-5 start, Baltimore is on a 7-3 SU, 5-5 ATS run after a 41-24 win at Green Bay as an underdog. They're 5-2 SU/4-3 ATS on the road. QB Lamar Jackson (18 TDs, 6 INTs) and RB Derrick Henry (1,469 yards, 5.1 ypc) lead a ground game that is No. 1 in the NFL in yards (157.8 per game) and in yards per carry (5.3). The defense is ninth on third down (36.45%). Pittsburgh could have clinched last week, but flopped in a 13-6 loss to the Browns. Top wide receiver D.K. Metcalf (850 yards, 14.4 yards per catch) is still out, serving the second game of a two-game suspension. He had seven catches for 142 yards in Week 14 against Baltimore. The offense is 26th in total yards, while the defense is 25th on third down (41.96%) and 27th in yards allowed. Play Baltimore.

Pittsburgh is on a 6-4 run UNDER the total, off a 26-7 loss to Buffalo. QB Aaron Rodgers doesn't get much help from a running game that is 28th in rushing and 25th in yards per carry (4.0). They face division rival Baltimore, always a physical game. Baltimore's offense has averaged 20 points over the last three games. They prefer ball-control with RB Derrick Henry, which chews up yards and the clock. The offense is 20th on third down (37.59%), and they're on a 5-2 run UNDER the total. Take Pittsburgh/Baltimore UNDER the total. 

A pair of great rivals and physical, defensive teams clash in the Baltimore cold. It will be 34 degrees with 14 MPH winds. Pittsburgh is 12th defensively in yards allowed, sixth versus the run, second on third down (35.29%), and eighth in points given up. Four of their last five games have gone UNDER the total since the weather turned cold in December. The offense has gone cold, too, losing four in a row averaging 14.25 points. Baltimore is 10th defensively in yards allowed, No. 1 against the run, 12th in red zone defense, and ninth in points given up. The last two meetings on this field have been 17-10 and 18-16 finals, and this shapes up as another defensive duel with so much at stake. Take Pittsburgh/Baltimore UNDER the total. 

This has long been a substantial, heated rivalry, and this should be a game the Ravens can handle. The Ravens will be playing with revenge for an 18-16 loss earlier in the season. Pittsburgh is considered the better team defensively, but I think there has been some luck involved when you look at the numbers. The Steelers allow opponents just 5.5 yards per play, while Baltimore allows 5.6. The huge gap in this game is the Baltimore offense, which is generating 7 yards per play, while the Steeler's woeful offense generates just 5.3. I think the numbers more than justify the line in this game, and this time, Baltimore has revenge and is playing at home. Pittsburgh has a lot of key injuries on the injury report. Baltimore owns an 11-2 ATS mark when facing a team that averages 24 or more points per game. Make the play on Baltimore.