Baltimore Ravens vs Miami Dolphins Point Spread Picks

Combine the Ravens (-400) and the Baltimore at Miami OVER 51 (-110) into a 2-team parlay at +139 odds.

Both teams come off statement wins with Miami proving it can beat one of the top teams in the league and Baltimore defeating San Francisco to arguably claim being the best team in the NFL. However, the Ravens have to come back from the West Coast and play on a short week and they are 7-17-1 ATS their past 25 games following an ATS win. Miami is tops in the league scoring 30.9 points per game while the Ravens are No. 1 in scoring defense allowing 16.3. Miami also showed it can win a low-scoring game as it beat Dallas 22-20 and Jason Sanders was the star of the game kicking five field goals, including a 29-yarder as time expired. Tua Tagovailoa threw for 293 yards and a TD and Miami outgained the Cowboys 375-339. The Dolphins are 6-1 ATS after accumulating more than 350 total yards their previous game. San Francisco outgained the Ravens 429-343, but Baltimore intercepted Brock Purdy four times and Sam Darnold once. Miami has gone UNDER its past two games while allowing a total of only 20 points and the Ravens are 22-8 UNDER their past 20 games as favorites. Baltimore is 6-2 UNDER versus AFC opponents. Take the Dolphins and the UNDER.

The Maimi Dolphins opened last season with a win and then proceeded to lose seven straight. The team really came together as they closed out 2021 with an 8-1 record over their last nine games, which carried over into a dominating Week 1 win over New England, 20-7. Early in the season, these lopsided divisional wins have created great value on the total, with double-digit winners like Miami going 135-90 OVER (60%). On the road, that record improves to 76-45 OVER (63%). The Fish are now 10-1 in their last 11 and slide completely under the radar, getting more than field goal here. Baltimore handled the Jets 24-9 in their opener, but the Ravens finished 2021 on a 3-8 run and ended up with a losing record. I think Miami has done a lot more to improve itself and is the better of these two teams. Baltimore managed more than 22 points just once in their last nine games, and their 24 points vs. the Jets was unimpressive. Conference favorites that had a losing record last season are 137-211 ATS over the last 39 years. I like Miami to cover and for this game to sail OVER the total. 

Miami got its first win since Week 1 as Jacoby Brissett filled in for injured Tua Tagovailoa and threw for 244 yards and a touchdown. The Dolphins won despite committing five turnovers. If they can improve in that department, they are in a good spot on Thursday while getting more than a touchdown against Baltimore, which is only 3-5 ATS and comes off a come-from-behind, 34-31, overtime win as a 7.5-point favorite against Minnesota. The Ravens have played three OT games this season, and they also own a 41-17 loss at home to Cincinnati. Lamar Jackson threw for 266 yards with 3 TDs and ran for 120 yards against the Vikings, but the Ravens usually go down to the wire as they are 1-5 ATS their past six games as favorites and 1-4 ATS their past five November games. Miami is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 home games and 15-7 ATS overall following an ATS win. Take the Dolphins.

Ryan Fitzpatrick will be the starter for Miami and it will be a record eighth team in which he has thrown a pass. The Dolphins do have the experience edge at quarterback as they go against second-year QB Lamar Jackson, who did lead the Ravens to a 6-1 finish in the regular season before losing to the Chargers in the Wild Card playoff game.  Jackson was only 14-of-29 for 194 yards with two touchdowns and an interception and was outplayed by another veteran, Philip Rivers. The sophomore jinx is alive and well in the NFL as opponents study film of rookie QBs and figure out how to defend them and exploit the flaws, which actually began against the Chargers. Also, Jackson throws mostly short-to-medium range passes making it easier for a defense to focus in on. New coach Brian Flores comes over from New England where he was essentially the defensive coordinator. Baltimore suffered the losses of linebackers Terrell Suggs, C.J. Mosley and Za'Darius Smith to free agency. Baltimore has gone UNDER in four of its last five openers and the UNDER is 7-3 the last 10 meetings in Miami where the weather is expected to be hot and humid, giving the Dolphins another advantage. Miami is 5-0 ATS the last five years in Week 1 and it has covered six of its last eight home games. The Ravens have gone UNDER in five of their last seven road games and the Dolphins are 5-2 UNDER their last seven September games. Play the Dolphins and the UNDER.