Baltimore Ravens vs Kansas City Chiefs Point Spread Picks

The Baltimore Ravens have scored 111 points in three games, or 37 points per game. That appears to have the look of an ultra elite offense. The reason they are off to a 1-2 start is that their defense is allowing 32 points per game, and Henry is fumbling games away. The Chiefs are not scoring as much so far as we'd expect, but anytime you have Patrick Mahomes under center, they can score 30 very fast, and they will have many opportunities vs. the porous Ravens' defense. Baltimore is now 24-15 to the over in their last 39 games, including 11-6 in road games. Just one of the previous seven meetings between these teams has resulted in a game that went UNDER the total. I like the OVER. 

A pair of star quarterbacks oppose each other, but don't overlook these defenses. The Ravens and Chiefs finished as the top two scoring defenses last season. Baltimore's defense was sixth in yards allowed, ninth on third down (36.8%), and led the NFL in sacks. Baltimore has an inexperienced offensive line entering the new season and is on a 5-2 run UNDER the total on the road. Kansas City's defense was second in total yards allowed, fifth on third down (35.53%), and third in sacks led by Chris Jones and George Karlaftis. The Chiefs are on a 12-5 run UNDER the total, NFL primetime matchups are 70-42-1 UNDER over the last two seasons, and these two played to a 17-10 final at Arrowhead during last season's Conference Finals. Take Baltimore/Kansas City UNDER the total. 

Kansas City has won 11 in a row while covering the spread in all but one of them dating back to last year's Super Bowl-winning season. Baltimore has won 14 consecutive regular-season games, but they lost to the Chiefs 33-28 in Week 3, 2019 and are laying meaningful points in tonight's matchup. The Chiefs did escape with an overtime win against the Los Angeles Chargers last week when Harrison Butker kicked a 58-yard field goal. Pat Mahomes went 27 of 47 for 302 yards and two touchdowns, and he ran for 54 more yards on six carries. Tyreek Hill caught five passes for 99 yards and a score. Baltimore has beaten the Browns and Texans, but obviously this will be a much tougher test for the Ravens, who took advantage of a mistake-filled game by Houston last week. Lamar Jackson threw for 204 yards and a TD and the Texans were held to 51 rushing yards. The Chiefs are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five Monday games and 11-2 ATS their last 13 September games. Also, Kansas City is 6-1-1 ATS its last eight games as an underdog, and 12-5-1 ATS its last 18 road contests. Baltimore is just 4-11 ATS its last 15 games as a home favorite and 1-4-1 ATS in Week 3. It's not often we get the best team in the league getting more than a field goal. Take the generous points on the and play the Chiefs for a Max Play, buying to +3.5 if you need to.

Kansas City defeated the Ravens 27-24 in overtime in December to put the game OVER the total. The Chiefs are averaging 34 points this season. They beat the Raiders 28-10 and it stayed UNDER mainly due to Pat Mahomes' dealing with an ankle injury that limited his mobility although he still threw for 443 yards and four touchdowns. Kansas City's offense was almost all through the air as it gained only 31 yards on the ground. Second-year quarterback Lamar Jackson continued his stellar play with 272 passing yards and rushing for 120 more. Tight end Mark Andrews caught eight passes for a career-high 112 yards and a touchdown and rookie Marquise Brown added eight receptions for 86 yards. Baltimore has gone OVER in five of its last seven versus AFC opponents and the OVER is 7-3 in the Chiefs' last 10 games overall. Also, Kansas City has gone OVER in four of its last five September games. There'll be a lot of points scored with two of the best young QBs in the league at the helm, so play this game to go OVER.