Baltimore Ravens vs Detroit Lions Point Spread Picks

Detroit had one of the best offenses in the NFL last season, including No. 1 in scoring, and looked just as potent the previous week in a 52-21 win over Chicago. Jered Goff (6 TDs, one pick) leads the NFL in completion percentage (80.6%). Defensively, they will look to contain the run, making Baltimore more one-dimensional. Coach Dan Campbell is emphasizing a swarming defense and gang tackling. The Lions are on a 26-12 ATS run. Detroit can attack a Baltimore secondary that is last at defending the pass, surrendering 298.5 yards per game. The matchup suggests a close one all the way, so back the underdog. Play Detroit. 

The oddsmaker still isn't giving Detroit much respect even with a 5-1 straight up and ATS record as the Lions are an underdog this week against Baltimore, which is 2-8-1 ATS its past 11 home games. The Lions are firing on all cylinders with Jared Goff among the leaders in most QB categories and he torched Tampa Bay on 30 of 44 passing for 353 yards and no interceptions. Detroit is No. 3 in the league in total offense yards and No. 4 with 28.0 points per game. The Ravens come off a 24-16 win over Tennessee, which is No. 26 in total yards, and Baltimore has played mostly weak offensive teams so far this season, including a win against Cincinnati when Joe Burrow was still recovering from his calf injury. There is a revenge motive as the Lions remember losing 19-17 to the Ravens two years ago on a 66-yard field goal by Justin Tucker as time expired although Baltimore should have been called for delay of game on the play prior to the kick. The Lions are 12-2 ATS versus teams with winning records, 24-8 ATS their past 32 games overall and 7-0 ATS after allowing fewer than 15 points their previous game. Play the Lions.

Baltimore is a big road favorite, but the defense hasn't been sharp allowing 33 and 35 points in their two games. This is their second road game, and they were a road favorite in the opener but lost, 33-27, at Las Vegas while allowing 491 yards. The offense is #17 in third-down conversions while QB Lamar Jackson has 2 TDs and 2 picks. The Ravens are 8-17 ATS after allowing 6.5+ yards per play in the last game, and Detroit is going to play hard with a new coaching staff under Dan Campbell, especially at home. The Lions covered in their only home game, never quitting in a 41-33 loss to San Francisco. The offense is #13 in the league in total yards and points (25 per game) and #12 in passing yards behind new QB Jared Goff (5 TDs and 2 INTs). Also, NFL underdogs that averaged 275+ passing yards the previous season are 32-8 ATS after allowing 7+ passing yards per attempt in the previous game. Play Detroit.

The Baltimore Ravens have pitched a pair of shutouts in two of their last four games, but when you consider both of these teams have suspect offenses and backup QBs, it takes some of the appeal away from this one. Detroit brings in an above average offense, and one that has been consistently good on the season averaging 26.7 points per game, and have scored 23 points or more in 9 of their 11 games. The issue for the Lions is a suspect defense that has allowed opponents 24 ppg on the season. It has not been a good season for Joe Flacco, but in spite of that, the Ravens offense has produced 20 points or more in 8-of-11 games, including each of their last four. It sure appears that both of these teams could get to 20 points and beyond, and with a low total here, I will back the OVER in this one.

Baltimore is 2-0 after a close win at Indianapolis and John Harbaugh now is 22-12 straight-up and 21-13 ATS in his preseason career. Joe Flacco didn't play, but the top two backups played well as Ryan Mallett was six-of-eight for 47 yards and one of those incompletions was a dropped pass. Also, Josh Johnson was 11-of-16 for 72 yards and also rushed for 40 yards on five carries. Baltimore showed an improved running game in gaining 120 yards on 30 carries. Meanwhile, Detroit's rushing attack looked as bad as last year when it was last in the league in that category. The Lions, who seemingly haven't had a good rushing attack since Barry Sanders, managed 73 yards on 27 carries for 2.7 yards per carry while losing 30-14 to Cincinnati. That was worse than Game 1 when they managed 3.5 yards per carry against Pittsburgh. Matt Stafford was 8-of-11 for 113 yards and Dan Orlovsky was 8-of-14 with an interception. Rookie Jake Rudock finished up and was 8-of-11 for 90 yards with one pick. Detroit coach Jim Caldwell is 9-13 straight-up and 11-11 ATS in preseason. Harbaugh historically takes these games more seriously than Caldwell, especially in front of the home fans who would like to forget last season. Play the Ravens.