Baltimore Ravens vs Buffalo Bills Point Spread Picks

The opener between Baltimore and Buffalo certainly could be a preview of the AFC Championship game. This should be a great Week 1 game. These teams have had some competitive games in Buffalo, where the Bills have won and covered four of the five. There was just one game that went over the total, as the 4-1 mark has been in favor of the UNDER. The only game that went OVER the total was by 0.5 points. Baltimore, over the last 2 years, has played 8-4 to the under in conference games. All Buffalo games over the past 2 years vs. Conference opponents are 16-10 to the under. There is a lot on the line for both these teams, and usually, games like this don't end up high scoring, especially early in the season. Make the play on the UNDER.

Pittsburgh's vaunted defense couldn't contain Lamar Jackson, who went 16-for-21 for 175 yards and two TDs and no interceptions in Baltimore's 28-14 win over the Steelers. Derrick Henry ran for 186 yards and two TDs for the Ravens, who have averaged 32.6 points their past five games. Baltimore is 13-5 OVER this season and Buffalo is 11-6-1 OVER. The Ravens beat the Bills 35-10 in Week 4 and they racked up 427 total yards of offense. Jackson threw for 156 yards and Henry rushed for 199 on 24 carries. Both teams averaged 30-plus points in the regular season and Josh Allen comes off a stellar performance against Denver. He finished 20 of 26 for 272 yards and two TDs with no picks and James Cook ran for 120 yards. Baltimore has gone OVER eight of 10 road games and Buffalo has averaged 32.6 points its past five games. Both teams have offensive weapons galore, and I don't think the cool January weather in Orchard Park is enough to slow it down for a full 60 minutes. Take the OVER.

This is a classic early-season AFC showdown to round out Sunday's action. Buffalo's talented defense is eighth in yards allowed and seventh in points given up (16 per game). Baltimore's defense finally showed up in Week 3, a victory at Dallas holding the Cowboys to 3.2 yards per rush. There was a high total when star QBs Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson last met, but it went UNDER in a 23-20 Buffalo victory. The Ravens went ball-control holding the football for a whopping 38:10 minutes but still lost. The total has gone UNDER in five of the last six meetings between these teams. Take Buffalo/Baltimore UNDER the total. 

The eye test says Buffalo is the best team in the NFL, and on the field, they have looked like it. They are 2-1 on the season after losing 21-19 to Miami. That game was very misleading as Buffalo out-gained Miami 413-243. It was an ugly turnover-laden game as Buffalo uncharacteristically turned the ball over 4 times. I expect the Bill's to be completely focused as they head to Baltimore to take on the 2-1 Ravens. The Baltimore defense used to be a team strength but that defense has disappeared. The Ravens are allowing over 100 yards on the ground and through 3 games have allowed over 1,000 passing yards. The Ravens are good offensively, but not better than the Bills, while defensively the Bills are vastly superior and that will be the difference maker in this one. Make the play on Buffalo.

Buffalo escaped with a victory last week, but Indianapolis still piled up 472 yards of offense and even committed no turnovers while still losing to the Bills. Buffalo will have to play better defensively against the Ravens and Lamar Jackson, who ran for 136 yards, including a 48-yard touchdown, and passed for 179 yards while beating Tennessee 20-13 on Sunday. Just as important, Baltimore's defense contained 2,000-yard rusher Derrick Henry, who managed only 40 yards on 18 carries. Josh Allen threw two touchdown passes and rushed for one as Buffalo went OVER again, and the Bills now are 11-5-1 OVER on the season. The Bills had the #14 defense in the league in yards allowed, but in the playoffs so far, they are #10 defensively of the 12 teams. Baltimore averaged 29.3 points in the regular season and led the league by a wide margin in rushing yards (191.9 per game). The Bills are 11-2-1 OVER following a win and 16-7-1 OVER after having at least 250 passing yards their previous game. The weather forecast is mostly cloudy with highs in the mid-30s. Baltimore is a slight underdog. Play the Ravens on the moneyline and the OVER for a Max Play.