Atlanta Falcons vs Washington Commanders Point Spread Picks

The Atlanta Falcons have had a rollercoaster season, and we are just in the 4th week. The Falcons lost a tough one to Tampa Bay 23-20 at home in Week 1. They then went on the road and beat Minnesota 22-6. Last week was a forgettable loss to Carolina, 30-0. That game wasn't anything it looked like. They out-gained the Panthers by 110 total yards, but a 3-turnover deficit sealed their fate. Atlanta has been one of the best defensive teams this season, allowing 4.6 yards per play, but the offense is producing just 14 points per game. Washington has beaten Las Vegas and the Giants, and the offense looked great, but those are two low-level teams with little defense. They managed just 18 points vs. the only good defense they have seen and were held to 230 total yards. I like the UNDER.

Atlanta is tied for first place with Tampa Bay and has a winning road mark. They've turned to mobile QB Michael Penix Jr., who's helped by RB Bijan Robinson (1,196 yards, 4.6 ypc). The defense is 13th in the NFL in yards allowed, 12th versus the run, and seventh in the red zone. The Falcons come off victories over Las Vegas (15-9) and the Giants (34-7). Washington's defense is 29th against the run (137.4 yards per game), 16th on third down, and 26th in the red zone. Washington is on a 3-3 SU/2-4 ATS run and has failed to cover three of their last four as a favorite. Play Atlanta. 

Washington has won the past two meetings, including 19-13 last year, and it went UNDER by eight points. The Commanders suffered an embarrassing loss to Chicago 40-20 last week, but it was a tough schedule spot as they had gone overtime four days earlier at Philadelphia. Atlanta eked out a 21-19 win over Houston when Younghoe Koo kicked a 37-yard field goal as time expired. Desmond Ridder passed for 329 yards and a TD and ran for a score for the Falcons, who didn't cover the spread for the fourth consecutive game. Despite the win, the Falcons have averaged only 11.3 points their past three games and they are 7-22 ATS their past 29 games as home favorites of 0.5-3.0 points and 5-11 ATS their past 16 games as home favorites overall. Washington has covered four of five as a road underdog and it is 6-2-1 ATS as a dog overall. The Commanders are 13-6-1 UNDER their past 20 games overall and 13-4 UNDER following an ATS loss. Atlanta has gone UNDER nine of 11 overall, including its past three games by an average of 12 points. Take the Commanders as a Max Play buying 1/2 point to +3, and bet this game to stay UNDER the total.

Washington had a slow start this season, but the Commanders now are hitting their stride winning five of their past six games with a 5-0-1 ATS record. One of the main reasons has been steady quarterback play by Taylor Heinicke, who has stabilized the offense while not putting up big numbers. Heinicke threw for 191 yards with no interceptions in Washington's 23-10 victory over Houston, which was held to 148 yards of offense, including just five in the first half. Washington's defense is 6th in total yards allowed and the Commanders are 12th in scoring defense with 20.3 points per game. Atlanta pulled out a 27-24 win over Chicago, which lost its fourth straight last week. The Falcons were outgained 288-280, but picked off Justin Fields with 1:07 left and Cordarrelle Patterson returned a kickoff 103 yards for a touchdown. The Falcons are just 1-4 ATS their past five games and 4-9-1 ATS their past 14 games following a win. Washington is 18-7-1 ATS following a win and the team is peaking at the right time. Take the Commanders.