Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tampa Bay lost in more ways than one last game vs. Baltimore. The Buccaneers came out on the losing end of a 41-31 final. That isn't the worst of the bad news. Tampa Bay lost their top two WRs in the game Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Godwin has been lost for the season, while Evans is estimated to miss five weeks. The Tampa Bay offense, which has really looked good, will not have the same look for the foreseeable future. Atlanta has played four of their seven games UNDER the total, and I think they will be loading up the box, as Tampa Bay will try and run the ball to shorten the game and make a lot of short passes to keep the clock moving. I don't think the total has been adjusted enough here and will make the play UNDER the total. 

Tampa Bay rebounded nicely from a loss to Denver and pounded Philadelphia 33-16 on Sunday as Baker Mayfield threw for 347 yards and two TDs and ran for a score for the Buccaneers. The defense held the Eagles to zero yards of offense while building a 24-0 lead and it had six sacks in the game. Tampa Bay held a 445-227 advantage in total offense yards. The Buccaneers have covered four in a row as underdogs of 0.5-3.0 dating to last season and they are 6-1 ATS as dogs overall. Atlanta is 0-4 ATS its past four games against NFC South teams although it did pull out a 26-24 victory as a 2.5-point favorite last week against New Orleans. Younghoe Koo kicked a 58-yard field goal with two seconds left to win it for the Falcons, who were outgained 366-315. Atlanta has gone UNDER its past seven Thursday games and Tampa Bay is 6-1 ATS its past seven in the first of back-to-back road games. The Buccaneers are 8-0 UNDER after allowing fewer than 250 yards their previous game and they have covered eight of 11 overall. The Falcons are 2-8 ATS their past 10 home games. Take the Buccaneers and the UNDER.

Atlanta's defense has been doing the job so far this season as it is ranked No. 4 in the NFL in total yards allowed, but the Falcons need more production from their offense and Desmond Ridder has to stop throwing it to the other team. Ridder threw three picks in Atlanta's 24-16 loss to Washington, but he did total 307 passing yards. The Falcons face another offensively-challenged team in Tampa Bay, which averages only 18.0 points per game and is No. 25 in total offense yards. The Buccaneers were outgained 380-251 while losing 20-6 to Detroit in Week 6 and Baker Mayfield completed just 19 of 37 for 206 yards with an interception and the Bucs had only 46 rushing yards on 16 carries. Tampa Bay's defense couldn't contain Jared Goff, who threw for 353 yards on 30 of 44. The Buccaneers are 5-15-1 ATS their past 21 games overall, 3-9-1 ATS as favorites and 2-10-1 ATS following an ATS loss. Also, Tampa Bay is 1-10 ATS before a Thursday game and 1-6 ATS as a home favorite of fewer than three points. Take the Falcons.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have had a sloppy season and although they are just 8-8 heading into the final week of the regular season, they have clinched the inept NFC South. This team has played way below the line this season but somehow seems to manage to win. The word is they want to maintain momentum and it looks like Tom Brady will start. The Atlanta Falcons are just 6-10 on the season. They have played well below the line as they are 2-8 ATS in their last 10. Atlanta has not been able to get a margin on any team except in their win vs San Francisco this season. None of heir other 15 games resulted in a win by more than 4 points. I don't expect that to change here. Make the play on Tampa Bay.