Atlanta Falcons vs Seattle Seahawks Point Spread Picks

It would be easy for Seattle to overlook 4-8 Atlanta. It also would be a mistake. The Falcons are headed for an eighth straight losing season. But they are better than their record shows, and this is a dangerous situational spot for Seattle. Atlanta has kept things close in five of their eight defeats, losing by an average of 3.2 points in those games. A pair of those losses came against the Panthers and Colts in overtime, by three and six points, respectively. Atlanta lost to the Jets, 27-24, as a three-point road favorite last Sunday when Nick Folk made a 56-yard field goal as time expired. Now the Falcons are home. This is an early start game for the West Coast Seahawks. It is also a different environment for them to play indoors on carpet. Just two weeks ago, the Seahawks surrendered 24 points to the Titans, who have scored the fewest points in the NFL. Seattle hasn't had to face a running back of the caliber of Bijan Robinson all season. Take the Falcons.

It is a toss-up game when you have a 3 or 3.5-point home favorite and remove the home-field advantage. I like to refer to these types of games as coaching games. That has given Seattle a massive edge in these types of games. The Seahawks are 44-22-4 ATS when taking the field as an underdog of 3 or 3.5 points. To a similar number of games, the Falcons cover just 45% and recently just 1-5 ATS. The Falcons have won three straight games. The other side of this is NFL teams that have lost 3 straight games and playing as a road dog are 193-165-5 ATS, or cover 54% of the time. Sometimes betting lines is better than betting stats. Make the play on Seattle.

The Seattle Seahawks were sky high for their season opener against Denver. They are 1-1 through 2 games and despite that opening night win, there are a lot of warts here. The offense was expected to struggle without Russell Wilson. Seattle has just 102 rushing yards through 2 games, and the passing game has 357 yards. Atlanta has turned the ball over 5 times in their two games. While their 27 points vs the Rams looked impressive, the Falcon offense generated a total of 261 total yards. That makes the offense looks like it has started better than it actually has. The Seattle defense is always tough at home, but the offense has no running game and a passing game that isn't getting down field. I like the under in this game.

Seattle has had poor to bad offensive line play ever since their back-to-back Super Bowl run ended. They bring in four veteran offensive linemen for this season to try and address those holes. QB Russell Wilson was sacked a league-high 48 times in 2019. It remains to be seen if the O-line is improved, and they had no preseason work together. The legendary Legion of Boom defense is long gone as the Seahawks were #25 in total yards allowed last year and #26 against the pass. Seattle is on a 4-13 ATS run in September (2-10 ATS in the first two weeks), and that suspect secondary faces a terrific veteran QB in Matt Ryan (4,466 yards, 26 TDs in 2019) along with the best wide receiver in the league in Julio Jones. Atlanta started last season slow but was great down the stretch. After the bye week, the offense averaged 27.0 points per game, while the defense allowed 18.6 points per game to close the season. Pro Bowl defensive tackle Grady Jarrett and Vic Beasley get help with newcomer Dante Fowler, Jr., an excellent pass rusher and addition. Seattle has failed to cover four in a row against Atlanta and is 5-14 ATS in September road games, while the Falcons are 19-6 ATS at home in the first two weeks of the season. Play Atlanta.

Both of these teams come off losses that went UNDER the totals and Matt Ryan is questionable for this game with a right ankle sprain. However, the Falcons face a Seahawks defense that was helpless against Lamar Jackson and an offense that produced only 16 points while Russell Wilson completed only 20-of-41 for 241 yards and a touchdown and interception. Seattle has won four of its five wins by a combined eight points and is depending too much on Russell Wilson. If the Falcons can contain Wilson as well as the Ravens then they can pull out a win here or at least take it to the wire even if Ryan doesn't play. Atlanta is 23-10 ATS its last 33 games after scoring fewer than 15 points its previous game and it's 13-4 UNDER versus teams with winning records and 6-1 UNDER its last seven home games.  Also, the Falcons have stayed UNDER five of its last seven after losing by at least 10 points at home. The line and total are too high for this matchup, so play the Falcons and the UNDER.