Atlanta Falcons vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Pittsburgh had winning records last year both home and on the road. They upgraded the offensive line in the first and second rounds with left tackle Troy Fautanu and center Zach Frazier while adding proven veteran QB Russell Wilson. The defense can rush the passer very well with T.J. Watt and newcomer LB Patrick Queen from the Ravens. When Watt is out, the Steelers are 1-10, but when he plays they're 69-33-2. The Steelers are also on a 7-3 run UNDER the total on the road. Atlanta was outscored by 52 points last season, the fifth-worst differential in the NFC. The Falcons have new looks everywhere with coach Raheem Morris, new coordinators, and a new QB in 36-year-old Kirk Cousins. The offensive line returns intact but that was for a run-first offense, so they're adjusting, too. The Falcons are also on a 10-7 run UNDER. Play Pittsburgh + UNDER the total. 

Pittsburgh comes off a 26-14 loss to the Ravens on Sunday night to drop its record to 1-2-1 straight-up and 1-3 ATS and the team is in some disarray as it waits to see what Le'Veon Bell is going to do. The Steelers scored all their points in the second quarter and Joe Flacco had no trouble dissecting the Pittsburgh defense as he completed 28-of-42 passes for 363 yards with two touchdowns and no picks. Ben Roethlisberger finished only 27-for-47 for 274 yards with a TD and interception. The Steelers were held to an incredible 19 rushing yards on 11 carries as the absence of Bell was obvious. Andy Dalton threw a 13-yard touchdown pass to A.J. Green with seven seconds remaining to give Atlanta its second heartbreaking loss in a row as it lost in overtime to New Orleans the week before. Surprisingly, the Steelers are 0-7 ATS their last seven home games dating to last season and 1-5 ATS their last six overall. Also, the Falcons have gone UNDER five road games in a row and they are 21-9 UNDER their last 30 games after a loss. The Steelers are 21-6 UNDER their last 27 October games and they have stayed UNDER 21 of their last 29 versus teams with losing records. Take the Falcons and UNDER.

Atlanta had a 10-point lead against the Dolphins, who came back to win 23-20 thanks largely to an unlikely 99-yard touchdown pass from David Fales to Damore'ea Stringfellow. The Falcons still had 270 total yards of offense, including 113 on the ground. Matt Ryan went three-for-three for 32 yards and Matt Schaub completed both of his passes for 20 yards. Matt Simms got the bulk of the playing time and went 10-of-20 for 104 yards and no interceptions. Pittsburgh is 1-4 ATS the last five years in Week 2 of preseason, including a 17-0 loss at home to Philadelphia last year.  The Steelers beat the Giants 20-12 last Friday, but still are just 3-7 ATS their last 10 preseason games. Pittsburgh took advantage of a costly fumble by the Giants in the final minutes of the first half when Josh Dobbs threw a 28-yard touchdown pass on the very next play. Dobbs went 8-of-15 for 100 yards with two picks and Bart Houston was two-of-seven for 24 yards. Steelers coach Mike Tomlin is only 7-15 straight-up and 5-16-1 ATS since 2012 in preseason. Lay the points and take the Falcons.

Sometimes what you see is what you get. The Steelers are 8-5 and in the playoff hunt. The Falcons are 5-8. This line is off as I think Pittsburgh should be favored by a field goal here. The nation watched Julio Jones rip the Packers defense on Monday night and some are over-reacting. And keep in mind Jones may not even suit up fo rthis one thanks to a hip injury he sustained at the end of that Packaers game. How quickly the public has forgotten about Pitt's dismantling of Cincinnati the day before. LeVeon Bell is due for a big game against an Atlanta defense that has allowed the most rushing TDs in the league this season (17). Take the much better team here in Pittsburgh.