Atlanta Falcons vs Minnesota Vikings Point Spread Picks

The Atlanta Falcons will take on the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday Night Football. The Falcons deserved to win last week vs. Tampa Bay. They out-gained the Bucs 358-260, or by almost 100 yards, but lost a tough 23-20 decision. Minnesota needed a big comeback to defeat the Bears 27-24. The Bears completely owned Minnesota at the line of scrimmage. The Bears won that battle 317-254, and both teams had one turnover. This is the case of the wrong team winning in both incidents, and the public perception is the opposite. I think the Vikings are overrated, and I like Atlanta in this one.

Combine the Vikings (-268) and the Steelers (-300) into a 2-team parlay at -120 odds.

Despite injuries and a difficult schedule, Minnesota is on a 4-1 SU/ATS run and they are 3-1 this season on the road. That included knocking off the mighty 49ers, 22-17, as a +7 dog and winning last week at rival Green Bay, 24-10. QB Jaren Hall stepped in for Kirk Cousins and finished the game last week and he gets the call again here. The Vikings' defense is 11th in the NFL in yards allowed and 15th in points given up. Atlanta is on a 3-4 SU, 1-6 ATS run after losing to Tennessee as a favorite, 28-23. They're 5-14 ATS after playing their last game on the road. Three quarterbacks have combined for seven TDs and six picks. With Desmond Ridder struggling, Taylor Heinicke gets the call and he's good, but not great (86.1 career QB rating). The Falcons are 26-43 ATS at home after having lost two of three, plus 63-89 ATS against teams averaging 350+ yards per game. Atlanta is also just 5-14 ATS in the Arthur Smith era following a road game. Play Minnesota. 

The Atlanta Falcons have had an ugly start to their season. They are 0-5 to start the season and have blown two huge leads in the 4th quarter, so about everything that can go wrong has. Minnesota has not fared much better as the Vikings enter at just 1-4 with the lone win against 1-4 Houston. This Minnesota team has a different look as over the last several years they have been very strong on the defensive side of the ball, but they are allowing a woeful 30.4 points per game on the season. The Falcons finally fired Quinn, and Raheem Morris will take over the team. Atlanta needed a change at the top, so look for them to play 60 minutes in this one vs. the Vikings. Winless teams of 0-4 or worse cover better than 55% of all games. Make the play on Atlanta.

Atlanta comes into the 2019 season with high hopes mostly due to a revamped offensive line after injuries decimated it last season. Also, the Falcons hope to have an improved secondary with Isaiah Oliver taking over a starting spot to go along with veteran Desmond Trufant. Matt Ryan begins his 13th season with hopes of being more protected this year after being sacked 42 times and he still completed 69.4 percent of his passes and threw for nearly 5,000 yards.  A major factor this year is that Devonta Freeman is back after missing all but two games and then having sports hernia surgery. The Falcons also hired Dirk Koetter as offensive coordinator to help with the running game, which obviously is important with Ryan's play-action fakes. Minnesota is depending on Kirk Cousins to rebound from a disappointing season and although his statistics were good, he faltered against the elite teams in the league. Dalvin Cook is one of the best running backs in the league, but hasn't shown that he can stay healthy. This is also the first meeting since 2017 between these two teams. Atlanta's improvements on both sides of the ball along with questions surrounding Cousins gives the edge to the road team in this matchup. Play the Falcons.