Atlanta Falcons vs Los Angeles Rams Point Spread Picks

The Rams have scored 45, 41, and 37 points in the last three games. They come off a 38-37 loss to Seattle. QB Matthew Stafford (40 TDs, 5 INTs) is likely to be the MVP of the league, leading an offense that is second in total yards (396.7 per game) and No. 1 in scoring (30.5 points per game). The Rams are on a 5-2 run OVER the total. Atlanta is 13th in total yards and has veteran QB Kirk Cousins back running the offense, scoring 29 and 26 points in the last two games. But they have a losing record, including 2-4 at home, with a defense that is 26th against the run, 20th in points allowed, and 21st on third down (40.74%). The Falcons are on a 6-2 run OVER the total. Combine the Rams (-339) and the Los Angeles at Atlanta OVER 49.5 (+100) into a 2-team parlay at +159 odds.

Atlanta lost a tough one in Week One as New Orleans came back from a 16-point deficit and won it when Will Lutz kicked a 51-yard field goal with 19 seconds left. Cordarrelle Patterson ran for 120 yards and a touchdown for the Falcons and Marcus Mariota went 20 of 33 for 215 yards with no interceptions. Los Angeles looked bad in its season opener against Buffalo and managed only 52 yards on the ground on 18 carries and Matthew Stafford threw three picks. Cam Akers carried the ball only three times for no gain and Cooper Kupp was the only bright spot with 13 receptions for 128 yards and a TD. The game went UNDER by 10.5 points. The Rams' performance does not dictate laying double digits in this matchup and the Falcons are 13-3 ATS their past Week Two games and they are 5-2-1 ATS their last eight road games. The Rams are just 2-5 ATS their last seven games and they are 19-7 UNDER as home favorites and 28-10-1 UNDER their past 39 games overall as favorites. Take the points with the Falcons and the UNDER as a Max Play.

Super Bowl losers often struggle and are overvalued the following season. The L.A. Rams have lost three in a row and made changes to a banged-up secondary this week, trading away CB Marcus Peters. They come off a big division loss at home to the 49ers, 20-7, and the Rams are 22-48 ATS after getting fewer than 250 total yards in their previous game. The defense has allowed 55, 30 and 20 points the last three weeks, losing two of those at home. Now they head to an Atlanta team that is clicking on offense behind QB Matt Ryan (15 TDs, seven INTs), scoring 34 and 32 points the last two games. The Falcons are 33-16 ATS after allowing 375+ total yards in two straight games, while the Rams are 14-28 ATS on the road against teams that complete 64% or better of their passes. Play Atlanta.

One of the biggest surprises this season were the Los Angeles Rams. The Falcons were a very explosive offensive team last year, but could not sustain that offensive pace this season. Despite that, their games went from an average total of 50.6 a year ago to just 48.6 this year. The Rams have certainly been a team that blossomed offensively this year averaging 30 points per game, after just 14 ppg last year a net improvement of a radical 16ppg - the biggest leap in offensive production of any NFL team. While the Rams defense was really solid at home, there is cause for concern. A team that allowed 79 points in their first six home games (counting a neutral site de facto home game), the Rams gave up 77 in their last two, and three of their last four home games were among the top four in points allowed at home. The Falcons certainly have the tools to score, and the Falcons come into this game having played 11 straight OVER the total when they are off a win of more than seven points as a favorite vs. a team that allowed over 400 yards in their last game, topping the total by over 10 ppg. Play on the OVER.

Los Angeles ranks at or near the bottom in every offensive category, including total yards (284.0 per game), rushing yards (79.2 yards per game), passing yards (204.8 per game), and scoring (15.0 points per game). The Rams have gone UNDER five of their last six games, even with some low posted totals, and have scored more than 10 points just once in that span. No. 1 draft pick, Jared Goff has shown he isn't ready for this league yet. He was 14 of 32 for 161 yards, with a touchdown and two interceptions in last week's 26-10 loss at New England. The Rams rushed for only 36 yards on 13 carries against the Patriots and lost for the seventh time in eight games. Los Angeles has fared much better on the defensive side allowing 345.0 yards per game for #10 in the NFL, and the Rams are #15 in points allowed with 21.8 per game. Atlanta has stayed UNDER seven of its last nine games on grass fields, and the Falcons are 13-6-1 UNDER their last 20 road contests. The Rams have gone UNDER in 20 of their last 27 games overall. Play the UNDER.